is a typical psychological phenomenon in human cognitive bias, itcauses the investors overly trust their own analytical skills, so the market reaction is notentirely rational. In order to explore the relationship between andoverconfidence in the future market, we have done the following researches:First, the research literatures about overconfidence and are included.We find that the existed literature on overconfidence research mainly focuses on the stockmarket, and the criteria of the overconfidence have not been unified. This chapter givesthe meanings of study about the behavioral finance theory in the future market.Second, we analyze the phenomenon that as the difference between spot andfutures price will be abnormal volatility and the turnover will be unstable when thespeculative in the future market is very large.Third, we construct and analyze the theoretical model of overconfidence and theempirical model. By solving the utility maximized equation, we get the optimal tradingstrategy. It indicates that the trading volume will amplify with the enlargement of thedegree of overconfidence and private information. By solving the vector auto-regressionequation about the variables of volume and rate of return, it indicates that the privateinformation and public information have different effects on trading volume.Fourth, soybean, cotton and rubber futures contracts are empirically analyzed. Theircoefficients from the vector auto-regression equation are calculated individually, and theyshow that the overconfidence is popular and the private information has a significantimpact on trading volume by comparing the residual sequence diagrams and impulseresponse diagrams.At last, the thesis gives the main conclusion and policy proposals. isa common phenomenon in the future market; the investors overreact to privateinformation and the private information shocks bring some volatility in the future market.So it’s necessary to enhance investor and to guide the investors to form therational ideas; and to improve the transparency of market information. The regulatory agencies should crack down on illegal activities. At last, we give some proposalfor further study.
Frequent Buyer Deals!
Buy 4 Get 1 Free
Customer Care Center
Exclusive Order Taking Hotline
- Position sensitive detector is one kind of Optoelectronic device uti…
- The Bending of a Thinking Reed
- Research on the Price Discovery Function of China’s Agricultural Commodities Futures Market Based on Cointegration Model
- Research and Design on Dynamic Multi-application Data Management of Java Card
- The Research of Government Function on the Construction of Mariner Labor Market
- A Windowless Double MCP ns Single Frame Camera and Its Application
- Study on the Municipal Construction and Management of Chongqing of Anti-Japanese War Period
- The Research on Opinion of Comfortable Degree about the Climate of Journey in Zhangjiajie National Forest Park
- Electromigration Reliability of Ultra-fine Interconnection in Integrated Circuit
- A Study of Public Art Education in S&T Universities
AHP Capital structure China commercial bank Commercial banks core competence corporate governance countermeasure countermeasures credit risk Development Development Strategy economic growth evaluation Factor Analysis FDI Foreign Direct Investment game theory human capital Index system industrial structure Innovation Internal Control Listed companies Listed Company management marketing marketing strategy Model performance Performance evaluation Performance Management Project Management Real Estate research Risk risk management strategy Supply chain Supply chain management sustainable development SWOT analysis system urbanization value chain