|Title||Real Estate Bubble: Theories, Methods of Examination and Empirical Analysis|
【Abstract】 Real estate, as the basis and guiding industry in the whole national economic system, has strong industry correlation. Its Moderate development can support and promote the economy’s rapid advancement. China’s real estate industry has been in the rapid development situation since 2002: Substantial demolition increases rapidly; the growth of commercial banks in real estate development loans and home loans is rapid; scare buying of land and housing situation comes forth again. All circles in our society are very concerned about the rapid development of real estate, “the existence of a bubble” “whether or not overheated” debate emerges.In the end, what is the real estate bubble? Whether China’s real estate market is a bubble or not? How to detect the real estate market bubble? How to prevent and control the real estate bubble rightly? At the basis of these issues, this article tries to use a new perspective to analyze the real estate bubble.The full article is divided into four chapters:Chapter one introduces the basic theories of bubble and real estate bubble: introducing general conception of economic bubble and real estate bubble, summing up the characteristics of the real estate bubble from the historical experience, analyzing the reasons which brings real estate bubble, then summarizing the harm of real estate bubble.Chapter two first introduces the methods of examination about real estate bubble: Index method, that is measuring real estate bubble by indexes which are pertinent to real estate bubble or by synthesizing indexes; Model establishment method, that is reckoning the theoretical price through the established model, then comparing theoretical price with actual price in order to verify whether real estate market is a bubble or not; Metric testing method, that is using statistics principle to analyze change of capital price statistically. When there is not a bubble, the price changes regularly and we can find it by metric analysis. When there is a bubble, the price changes irregularly. At last this chapter not only appraises the advantages and shortcomings, but also analyzes adaptability of these methodsThis article places special importance on Chapter three. Chapter three confirms the methods of real estate bubble examination and has empirical analysis. In the basis of the characteristics of China’s real estate market, this chapter emphasizes bubble in the city real estate market and investigates if there is a bubble and its extent. Considering regional character, empirical analysis selects Beijing, Jinan and Guilin to measure real estate bubble in different grade city. This chapter first tests the existence of real estate bubble using the method of co-integrating test, then examines the bubble extent in these cities which has real estate bubble, using index method.Chapter four points out that we should take effective ways to resolve the problem of real estate bubble, taking into account of the reasons of bubble rising, the authorgives us some advises.
|Subject||Bubble, co-integrating test, Index Method, methods of examination, Real Estate,|
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