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Empirical Study of Industrial Structure Upgrading and Employment Effect

On 18/12/2014, in Economics papers, by rain

The classic Economic theory and development of various countries have proved the positive correlation between Economic growth and changes in industrial structure and the positive correlation between economic growth and changes in employment structure. The advance of industrial structure and employment structure will promote economic growth. Meanwhile, the industrial structure and employment structure are also among the mutual restraint, mutual promotion. The coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure can provide a tremendous force for the development of the economy. However, due to policies, population, Education, and other factors, the coordinated development of the two may not be able to realized. When large deviation between the two occurs, problems such as unemployment lagged industrial upgrading and slow economic growth will emerge. Since the policy of reform and opening up, China has experienced three decades of rapid growth, the adjustment of industrial structure and employment structure has provide a strong driving force for China’s sustained rapid economic growth. Practice has proved that industrial structure and employment structure in the process of evolution remained essentially in the same direction with big deviations in some aspects. In particular, in recent years, given the increasing pressure of adjustment of industrial structure from both inside and outside and the increasing employment pressure, the study of both problems and causes of deviations will have great guiding significance for our future industrial upgrading and formulation of job-promoting policy. Guangdong Province is the forward positions of China’s reform and opening up, whose evolution of employment structure and industrial upgrading is very representative in the country. The in-depth analysis of the history and reality of Guangdong Province can provide a model for the country’s industrial policy and employment policies.A detailed analysis of the evolution process of industrial structure and employment structure in Guangdong Province is given at first, and then the international and domestic comparative analysis Guangdong Province is concluded by means of comparative analysis, which comes to the conclusion that the evolution of industrial structure and employment structure in Guangdong Province is still lags behind international standards though faster than the national average level. On top of that, and the internal structure of the secondary industry needs to be optimized and the traditional service industry is too high in the tertiary industries which is at a low level as an whole in the national economy. In the main part of this paper, empirical analysis is conducted from multiple point of view. In order to validate the coordination between employment structural and the industrial structure in Guangdong Province, models and indicators such as the employment structure effects models, structural deviation coefficient, coefficient matrix and employment elasticity are used for the in-depth analysis of employment structural. Then the conclusion that there exists a certain deviation between Guangdong’s industrial structure and employment structure which impacts the increase of the employment. This deviation was mainly reflected by high proportion of secondary industry, the slow development of tertiary industry, the absence of the ability to absorb employment. But in the long run, the productivity gaps among the three industries are still relatively large, leaving room for adjustment.Lastly, in response to the problems highlighted in this paper, policy recommendations are provided to promote the desirable interaction between the industrial structure and employment structure.

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Effects on the Employment to RMB Exchange Rate Adjustment

On 26/11/2014, in Economics papers, by rain

With the constant improvement of the market mechanism in China,continuous innovation and development of the financial system,exchange rate adjustment changes on the structure of the marketeconomy became increasingly evident. Adjust and optimize thestructure of employment is the driving force for sustained economicgrowth, and the outstanding problems in China’s employment structureis the capability of independent innovation in the industry, lack ofresources and energy consumption high, although the services sectorhas developed rapidly, but significantly behind. To accelerate theoptimization of the structure of employment facing many challenges,such as the rise in the cost structure optimization, thecontradiction between increased employment pressure, open theadjustment space narrowing. Thus a simple adjustment of the structureof employment is very difficult, but in the new Economic situation,the rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate to the employmentstructure to speed up the pace to promote the optimization andupgrading of the industry.In this paper, the impact of exchange rate changes on theemployment structure of the main line, is divided into six parts. Thefirst part of the purpose and significance of this study, as well asthe methods used; The second part of China since the founding ofexchange rate system, this option is divided into the planned economy,transition economies, market economy and the transformation of fourperiods of the economy, and explain the four-period exchange ratechoose the impact on employment; The third part discusses thetheoretical overview of exchange rate adjustment on the employmentstructure from the micro, me so and macro point of view of domesticand foreign organized analysis. Maximize the benefits and theconsumer’s utility maximization in the microscopic two starting mesoto illustrate the impact of exchange rate adjustment on employment from the industry point of view and transmission channels, and on thechoice of exchange rate regime, external shocks, such as classifiedas macroscopic point of view.Domestic and international research in this field, due to thesimilarity of the Economic development path of Japan and South Koreaand China, this paper special study of the exchange rate regimebetween the two countries to adjust their employment, with on thisbasis for our to certain experiences; fifth part is the empiricalpart, a variety of research methods, the advantages and disadvantagesof a comparative analysis demonstrated a variety of empirical methods,select the VAR vector auto regression model, followed by thetheoretical assumptions of the model equation describes theestablished econometric model, the third is to select the data,descriptive and correlation analysis, and give a variable an externalshock pulse to reflect, in order to explain the changes of theexternal exchange rate movements on total employment obtained finalconclusions; last part is a summary of the full text, as well as theoutlook for the employment prospects in China.

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A Study of the Impact of Labor Reallocation on Economic Growth

On 02/10/2014, in Management, by rain

Nowadays, there is seirous deviation between employment structure and output structure in China and the deviation would inevitably lead to inequality between the marginal outputs of different sectors. So the reallocation of labor resources could increase output without adding any input. It is significant to study the impact of labor reallocation on Economic growth in China, the quantification of the labor market disequilibrium and the viscosity of labor market.This paper dynamically research the contribution of labor shifts among various industries, especially the shifts of surplus Agricultural labor to Economic growth, and estimate the equilibrium wage rates of various sectors, the labor market viscosity coefficient and the practical wage rates between different sectors at the assumptions of the disequilibrium and the viscosity of labor market. First, we review the related literature about labor reallocation and economic growth. Second, employment structure and income per capita in China are analyzed at the perspective of time and spatial, and the relationship between employment structure and income per capita income in the whole world is analyzed correspondingly. Third, at the basis of the existing dual economic theory, we construct the two sectors model and the three department model that can be used to analyze the effects on economic growth from changes in labor structure. Fourth, using the provincial data in China from1993to2009, we make empirical analysis using the theoretical model mentioned above, and estimate the contribution of labor shift to economic growth, the wage rate between the various sectors under balanced situation, the viscosity of the labor market and the practical ratio of real wages in different sectors. Finally, we made a brief analysis of Agricultural policy and labor policy in China and put forward corresponding suggestion, concluding the paper and proposing research prospect.The conclusion of this paper are:the contribution of the capital growth per capita to the income growth per capita is between40%and50%; the contribution of the human capital growth per capita to the income growth per capita is from10%to14%; in the two sectors model, the contribution of the structural changes on the income growth per capita is between1.6%and2.3%; and in the three sectors model, the contribution of the structural changes on the income growth per capita is from5%to17.7%; the contribution of the net factor productivity growth on income growth per capita is between30%and37%. Furthermore, in equilibrium, the wage ratio of non-agricultural labor sector and agricultural labor sector is1.41; the wage ratio of the primary industry and the second industry is0.83; the wage rate of the tertiary industry and the second industry is1.31; the velocity of labor shifts from agriculture sector to non-agricultural sector is2.53; the velocity of labor shifts from the primary industry to the second industry is2.47; the velocity of labor shifts from the second industry to the tertiary industry is96.36. At the general tendency of labor shifts, the wage ratio of non-agricultural sector and agricultural sector is1.65; the wage ratio of the primary industry and the second industry is0.77; the wage rate of the tertiary industry and the second industry is1.32. We believe that, from these data, developing agriculture, adjusting the industrial structure and constructing labor market is the current policy approach to be taken.The innovation of this paper are:in non-balanced condition, we construct the two sectors model and the three department model; estimate the contribution of employment structural changes to the economic growth; estimate the practical wages ratio among various sectors; estimate the viscosity (velocity rate) of the labor market; estimate the equilibrium wage rates in various sectors.

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The Research of Zhejiang Province’s Foreign Direct Investment Influence the Upgrading of the Industrial Structure

On 06/09/2013, in International, by rain

As one of the first provinces opening to foreign, Zhejiang Province’s Investment increased from dozens, millions to present more than1billion, Investment area also started the limitations from southeast Asia into all over the world. the development of Zhejiang Province’s foreign direct investment always go ahead of other provinces in China. At the background of world Economic environment remains weak and ” Promote the upgrading of the industrial structure” policy, the study of Zhejiang Province’s foreign direct investment affect its industrial structure has a special significance. It can not only help us through the typical province to understand the relationship between foreign direct investment and upgrading of the industrial structure in east China area, but also provides specific empirical support for Zhejiang province’s decision-making and policy of foreign direct investmentThis paper utilizes the1986-2010statistics of Zhejiang Province and the techniques of VAR model, impulse response function and variance decomposition, and it divides the forms of expression for upgrading of the industrial structure into import and export structure optimization, the improvement of employment structure and the efficiency of domestic investment increases on the basis of studying the current situation of zhejiang province’s foreign direct investment, foreign direct investment necessity and the transmission mechanism of foreign direct investment influence the upgrading of the industrial structure. With all of these conditions, the paper makes an empirical study that how does the Zhejiang Province’s foreign direct investment influence the upgrading of the industrial structure.Research shows that Zhejiang Province’s foreign direct investment has a significant role in promoting the import and export structure and employment structure, as for the efficiency of domestic investment, foreign direct investment has a negative effect on it in the short-term, but in the long-term, foreign direct investment has a positive and sustainable role in promoting the efficiency of domestic investment. Generally speaking, Zhejiang Province’s foreign direct investment promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure.After concluding that Zhejiang Province’s foreign direct investment promote the upgrading of the industrial structure, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions at the angle of government and enterprises according to current status and difficulties of Zhejiang Procince’s foreign direct investment, and hope that Zhejiang Province’s foreign direct investment gets better and better.

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Research on the Relationship between Industrial Structure and Employment Structure of Jilin Province Based on Empirical Analysis

On 02/09/2013, in Management, by rain

Industrial structure and employment structure are both important parts ofnational economy. The coordinating development between industrial structure andemployment structure is essential to the healthy development of national economy.Many scholars at home and abroad research on the theory about industrial structureand employment structure by theoretical analysis and statistical analysis, therefore acomprehensive theory system forms. Industrial structure and employment structureinteract with each other. On the one hand, industrial structure as a significant basisdecides the size and development direction of employment structure; on the otherhand, employment structure promotes or obstructs the development of industrialstructure conversely. The rapid development of the national economy asks forcoordinating development between industrial structure and employment structure. But,the development of industrial structure priors to that of employment structure inreality, and employment structure gradually adapts to the development of industrialstructure. The synchronism between industrial structure and employment structurecauses a certain incompatibility between them. This paper mainly researches on therelationship between industrial structure and employment structure of Jilin provinceby empirical analysis, draws conclusions and presents relevant policy recommendations. This paper mainly carries out research in the following two areas:The first one, the evolution and current situation about Jilin’s industrial structureand employment structure can be reflected by data, and the problems between themcan be found through comparative analysis. On the whole, the pattern of industrialstructure transfers from “secondary industry, primary industry, tertiary industry” to”secondary industry, tertiary industry, and primary industry”; while the pattern ofemployment structure transfers from “primary industry, secondary industry, tertiaryindustry” to “primary industry, tertiary industry, secondary industry”. The tertiaryindustry develops rapidly and has advantage and huge potentiality in admitting laboremployment. The secondary industry as the pillar industry has great contribution tothe national economy but has limited ability to promoting employment. The quantityof employment in primary industry is huge. Therefore manpower surplus exits andneeds to be transferred. From the internal structure perspective, large-scale industrydominates the secondary industry; tertiary industry still is based on the traditionalservice industry and the emerging service industry needs to be developed.The second part of this paper applies indicators such as employment elasticity、comparative labor productivity and coordination coefficient to reflect the empiricalrelationship and coordination degree between the industrial structure and employment structure in Jilin province. Data shows that the comparative labor productivity indexof the primary industry is low, the promotion of employment structure to industrialstructure is faint, and manpower surplus exits. The employment elasticity index of thesecondary industry is low but the comparative labor productivity index is relativelyhigh. This shows that the action of industrial structure to employment structure is faint;therefore, the ability of secondary industry to promoting employment is low. Becausetwo indicators of the tertiary industry are moderate, the coordination degree is goodfor tertiary industry. However, the coordination degree of the primary and secondaryindustry is poor.To the characteristic of Jilin province, this paper presents the following policyrecommendations: reform the household register system to realize the free movementof labor; accelerate the pace of further optimization to secondary industry in order topromote employment; vigorously develop the tertiary industry to create moreemployment opportunities; establish the mechanism that the allocation of laborresources relies on the market and cultivate societal utility talents.

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Study on Structure of Information Industry of Chongqing

On 14/08/2012, in IT papers, by rain

【Abstract】 Information industry is making great contributions to Economic growth and Social progress, because of its high-penetration, high-appreciation and persistent development. Actually, we can use the development of information industry to measure a country’s international competitiveness. And information industry also becomes a symbol to show whether a country’s industry structure is advanced or not. In order to accelerate the Economic growth of Chongqing, it’s important to research its structure of information industry.We should give a clear definition of what information industry is before study it. This paper states and values some definitions given by other scholars at first, then brings forward a new one based on the essential characters of information industry, such as “profit” and “info activity”. According to the new definition, the paper starts to research the structure of Chongqing’s information industry. This paper uses production value structure and employment structure, the two most important factors of industry structure, as the paper’s analysis objects.Firstly, Chongqing’s information industry has no competitive advantage on the whole. Its production value structure and employment structure are still stay on the lowest level in the four municipalities. Secondly, although it’s no good on the whole, Chongqing’s information industry has its own advantage. Its intellectual coefficient and its productivity of high-appreciation sub-industry are higher than other municipalities. Thirdly, the increase of information industry highly relates to GDP. One million increase of information industry will cause eight million’s increase of GDP. Fourthly, Chongqing’s information industry has not show its power for upgrading the traditional industry yet. The productivities of agriculture and industry are still low.So, the thesis advises that: carry out on a large scale to develop high-tech industry; exert the power of information industry to upgrade the traditional industries; put the Chongqing’s industry on a right place; propel the course of urbanization; correctly deal with barriers to entry and to exit; and the government should take a good part in the development of information industry.

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The Research of the Mechanism and Effect of Our Country’s Employment Structure Evolvement: 1990-2002

On 11/08/2012, in Management, by rain

【Abstract】 Along with the development of the society and economy of our country, employment structure also has been intensely evolved. What feature and tendency have been present in this evolvement? What is the impelling force of this evolvement? What influence has been brought to our country? How to adjust it at the due time by policymeans? ……The research to these problems will not only deepen the theory such aseconomy developing, dual economy and surplus labor migration, etc., but also be beneficial to solve the problem which have been met in our country’s development such as the big gap between urban and country, unreasonable economical structure and the poor quality of human resource, etc. By analyzing the evolvement of the structure of ownership, profession and industrial of employment from 1990 to 2002, we find out that while the employment structure optimized, the new profession developed greatly and the ownership structural diversified, the employee proportion of Agricultural is still great, the developing of tertiary industry is not enough, therefore, employment structural conversion become slow. Traditional Economic theory maintained that the factors such as foreign trade, technical advance and the change of demand structural have caused employment structure evolvement. But as to the people who have subjective activity, the role of the “microscopic-job-choice” of employee should not be neglected in the evolvement of employment structure. The essence of this microscopic choice which is determined by ” acceptable job “,” employment cost “and “system space” is to maximize the utility of labor. When this microscopic mechanism combined with macroscopic mechanism by the ” manufacturer “, the evolvement mechanism of employment structure became more integrated and explainable. Under this mechanism, from structure flexible, relative earning and system changing, we can explain the features of structure evolvement reasonably. The evolvement of employment structure of our country have produced the “structural effect” in Economic development, driven the migrants of the Agricultural surplus labor, aroused the ” educational deepening “, and initiate to structural unemployment and dominant tendency of disguised unemployment. Some new cognition can be gained when we analyzed these effects with the evolvement mechanism of employment structure. The proportion of employee of Agricultural lead to structural conversion slowly, which have became the “bottleneck” of our country, and need to promote employment structure with some policy measures. But, as theemployment structural is a system, the police must be a system as well. Simple policy can’t solve problem. Have an analogy to evolvement mechanism, form a policy frame that make up of by key policy and peripheral policy, and carry out policy combination according to the difference of conduct mechanism, influence and the effect of different policy, equilibrium and validity of policy will get greater raising.

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The Technology Advancement Influence on Total Employment and Employment Structure of China

On 24/06/2012, in Management, by rain

【Abstract】 In the early 21st century, China is maintaining a good momentum of growth in all fields in the national economy. But it is also faced with all kinds of contradiction and challenger at the same time. Problem of technology advancement and employment is one of them.In this article, the author has talked solely round the problem of that how technology advancement have influenced on employment. First, from the theory of technology advancement affecting employment, the author analyzed the relation between them. Then the internal employment situation was summarized. On the basis of it, the author calculated in particular the synthetic impact that technology advancement to total employment and had done a comparative analysis of the employment structure for America and China against the background of information technology progress.The author points out that technology advancement contributing to labor employment are incarnated in its diffusion effect. Its effect on the total employment is decided by its twofold effect on employment. Technology advancement have improved labor productivity and average income, and this makes the employment proportion in different industry change. Since reform and open, Technology advancement have leaded to the employment elasticity’s hasty descent in the first industry and the second industry, and so that the total employment elasticity has descended. From 1978 to 2000, Technology advancement decreased 60.35 million for employment requirement. At the same time, our employment structure passed through innovate course, and it needs adjustment and optimum.At the end of this paper, on the principle that technology advancement have impacted unfavorably on internal employment increasing during short time, the author puts forward some policy and measures for enlarging internal labor employment’s developing roads.

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Economics Analysis of the Urbanization in the Western Region

On 09/06/2012, in Management, by rain

【Abstract】 The urbanization is that the rural population transformed to the city, and a kind of general Social phenomenon that rural population’s mode of production and life style transformed from village type to the city type. The urbanization is the embodiment of the progress of human society, the level of the urbanization is the important signs of a country or regional economy and Social development level. With the development of economy, the urbanization level of the world is improving constantly. But the urbanization level of our country lags behind in Economic development seriously, have already become one of the main factors of restricting Economic growth and Economic development. Especially the low urbanization level in the west has already obviously become the enormous obstacle of economic development, make originally very backward western economy have difficulty in taking a step further. The urbanization can’t already be put in front of us avoiding. At the beginning of 21st century, Our country move westwards economic development weight, Implement the development of western regions, it is concerning the great strategic policy moved towards in socio-economic development of our country and the important component of socialist modernization drive. In a certain meaning, the backwardness of western socio-economic development is the western city’s development to lag behind to cause. So, find out about the current situation and question of the western urbanization, study how to realize the fast development of the western urbanization, have important theory and practice meanings in accelerating the western urbanization process. In the eyes of Economics, the paper draws lessons from the domestic and international theoretical researches about the urbanization, reviewed the development of the urbanization of the western region, summarized the current characteristics of the western urbanization, and analyzed the reason of the urbanization lags of the western region. Based on a large number of full and accurate data and by adopting the descriptive and quantitative method together, establishing the econometric model, the paper carried on the empirical analysis to the urbanization and economic development of the western region, especially engaged the research on the relationship of the urbanization and economic growth, and of the urbanization and industry development of the western region. The writer derived and described the function of the urbanization level and the economic growth of the western region, carried on the empirical analysis of the interaction between the urbanization and the economic growth of the western region. The paper analyze the interaction of the western region urbanization and the industrial structure, employment structure together, and researched on the relevant indexes of the urbanization rate and industry development of the western region. On the ground that the theory and a large number of economic facts are analyzed, the writer pointed out the economic significance of the western urbanization and economic power, defined the policy of the western urbanization, chose the development strategy of the western urbanization, and brought out some positive countermeasures and suggestions. The referenced value of this paper lies in its constructive proposals and feasible suggestions for advancing the urbanization and accelerating the local economic growth in the underdeveloped area, especially to the western area, how to catch the opportunity of the development of western regions to speed up the urbanization process and boost the regional economy.

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The Positive Analyses on the Change Progress of the Industrial Structure and Employment Structure in China

On 05/06/2012, in International, by rain

【Abstract】 Since reform and opening-up, China has made the great achievement in Economic development. National total supply and demand is improved greatly, Economic structure is being optimized constantly, and the living standards of the people are being improved consequently. Our national economy is developed in a healthy way; however, the employment elasticity brought from the Economic growth is reduced year by year. The employment enlargement of the state-owned and collective-owned enterprises are dropping constantly with the rising of urban registered unemployment rate, and the surplus labor in the rural has no available work positions. As a result of these factors interweave together, the pressure on employment of our country become more and more heavy, which leads to the state of high economic growth& low employment.In the field of labor’s supply in our country, the population base is heavy and the quantity of working person is high. Theoretically, the labor’s total quantity will reach its peak in the following years, which will result in the enormous pressure on employment. In 2000, the total population of our country is 1.272 billion, while the working age persons is 0.775 billion; in 2010, the two indexes are up to 1.365 billion and 0.852 billion; and in 2020, the two indexes are up to 1.443 billion and 0.86 billion respectively. But with the increase of labor’s supply, the structural unemployment phenomenon appears in our country. The laborer’s quality structure is difficult to meet with the needs of the new and developing trend especially some Hi-Tech, shown as “some workers have no work, some work have no workers”.In the reforming period, the industrial structure is in the historical stage of rebuilding strategically. The proportion of the capital-intensive and technology-intensive industry is rising constantly, the proportion of the tertiary industry is being improved, and the new and developing trend is emerging quickly. Consequently, the micro-subject in the industry –enterprises are changing. The reform of the state-owned enterprises is being deepened and the individual private quantity of the enterprises increases with the position rising; meanwhile, a series of structural transitions have taken place. To a country with abundant even surplus labor, and the overall laborer quality can not meet with the Social needs, the employment structure will be influenced by the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading inevitably. And whether the laborer’s employment structure is rational, whether the labor’s disposition is efficient, is also the key factor of influencing industrial structureadjustment. So, under the double background that the violent change of industrial structure and the increasing pressure on employment, it is a great realistic project to research that how can employment quantity increase through the impelling of industrial structure, and how can employment structure comply with the demand of industrial structure rebuilding and development to reach the coordinated development of the two.Above all, the dissertation uses theories of Development Economics and Industry’s Economics, etc. to analyze the change progress of the industrial structure and employment structure of our country in detail with the method of positive analysis. Point out the characteristic of the two and the existing problems in the change progress, then analyze the reasons and give some suggestions to correct the deviation between the two.This dissertation is divided into five chapters.In Chapter I, the theory of industrial structure and principle of its change progress is explained at first, and offered the theoretical foundation for analyzing the characteristic and deviation of the change progress in our country. Then introduce the theory of the change in labor’s employment in the progress of industrial structure and explain theoretically the according relationship between the two structures.Chapter II analyzes the characteristic that the industrial structure and the employment structure influencing each other based on the research of Chapter I. The industrial structure determines the laborer’s scale of employment, employment structure and its development. The change progress of the industrial structure will bring negative effect to employment–structural unemployment, and put forward the laborer many demands to meet the new conversion which in order to adapt to the industrial structure.Chapter III is the part of positive analyses, analyze the trend characteristic of our country industrial structure and employment structure based on other countries’ condition, and then point out the different contribution of three industries to the employment. And based on the above research, introduce the “deviation of the structure” to analyze the industrial structure and employment structure together, point out that the reason of present pressure on employment in our country is not only conversion lag of industrial structure, but also the influence of deviation between industries-employment structure. The reasons of conversion lag include such factors as economic development strategy, urbanization level and economic structure, etc., and the main reason of deviation between industries-employment structure is theunsatisfied households register system, labor market, Social security and Education system.Chapter IV is the further extension of Chapter III. On the basis of the research in Chapter III, make a concrete analysis of the ownership composition change and research the influence between the upgrading of industrial structure and the laborer’s quality structure. It is proved from the analysis that the ownership composition and the laborer’s quality structure are very important to the labors’ employment.Chapter V is a part of policy recommendations, based on the summarization of above chapters. It is proposed that the coordinated development of industrial structure and employment structure is a key factor to the economic development quality and the people’s lives. Our country should take the positive affection to promote the development of the tertiary industry to avoid the adverse effect to the employment from the conversion lagging of industrial structure. It is correct to encourage the development of the individual private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises. Meanwhile, in order to dispel the factor of blocking the employment structure and contacting and the industrial structure, it is correct to accelerate the reform of household register system, set up unified labor market, perfect social security system and development educate in order to improve quality of laborer. The realization of the coordination between the industrial structure and employment structure will lead to increasing employment, and lightening the pressure on employment. This is an important way to construct the harmonious society of economy.