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The Study about the Rmb Exchange Rate’s Influence on China’s Industrial Structure High-grade

On 25/05/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

It has been nearly six years since the RMB exchange rate reform was carried out in July2005. RMB exchange rate has experienced a constant appreciation in the next5years. The RMB fluctuation of exchange rate deeply affects all the aspects of china’ s economy, and also has drawn wide attention. After the financial crisis happened in2008, U.S. dollar’s international status has been slowly weakened, partly due to the Treasury and the Federal Reserve has taken quantitative looser monetary policy. Meanwhile, instead of United States, the European Union and other countries and regions became China’s largest trading partners, their Economic connection with China become increasingly close. Lots of China’s researches analyze the exchange rate fluctuation’s influence on certain Economic variable, mostly with respect to foreign trade, Economic growth and so on, but rarely focus on industrial structure level. So this paper’s main work is to clear up relative theories, and it gives detailed discussion about how exchange rate fluctuation affected the industrial structure from the aspects of quality and quantity.This article includes four chapters:the first chapter is the introduction section, mainly introduces the background and significance of the research, research status from domestic and abroad, research methods and main content, innovations and difficulty, the exchange rate related concepts and three industries structure evolution rule. The second chapter is theoretical analysis and model introduction; it describes the theory of the impact of RMB exchange rate on the development of China’s economy and relative high-grade co-integration model. Chapter three is the key part of this study, namely empirical analysis process. At the beginning, it corrects the traditional model by adding new variable. Based on the corrected model, it analyzes the impact of the foreign trade and foreign direct Investment’s fluctuation on the real effective exchange rate. Then it discusses the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the structure of the three industries and the internal and spatial distribution structure of the second industry in China’s eastern, central and western regions. Based on the empirical results, the fourth chapter draws some conclusions and proposes some policy suggestions. Firstly, it summarizes the empirical analysis results, and then it puts forward the relevant policy suggestions and points out the shortages and possible improvement in this paper.

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Empirical Study on the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Hebei Province

On 22/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

For a long time, many economists have paid more attention to the relationship between foreign trade and Economic growth. With the continuous development of Economic globalization, whether foreign trade improves Economic growth, many people do not know the answer and domestic research present a phenomenon, the most research content is the majority, followed by a trade product or a trade ways. So this article will integrate the three to study foreign trade in Hebei province to promote economic growth and how to promote economic growth. How to better use foreign trade to drive the economy to realize big trade to strong trade province, accelerated industrialization process, people’s income and the entire income of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic zone and it,s sustainable development has a very important significance.Firstly, the paper defines the related concepts and theories, analyzes the foreign trade to boost growth mechanism from the two aspects of import and export. Then, there will be an analysis of the total foreign trade, foreign trade structure and foreign trade mode in Hebei province of foreign trade and economic growth on the current situation of comprehensive analysis, found that between 1996-2011the total foreign trade has made rapid development.The commodity structure to processing is given priority to and get preliminary upgrade; electrical and Mechanical equipment, high and new technical products weight increased, but the additional value lower traditional industries such as textiles, clothing, leather products and plastic products is still many processing trade Enterprise business scope. In trade way, the general trade occupies a major position; with the processing trade occupies a minor position.Then, the article applies HP filtering, after unit root test, granger causality test, cointegration test, contribution, and pull degree of constructing model methods respectively to the total amount of foreign trade and economy .In the Hebei province, empirical study found that between 1996-2011 year, total import and export volume, Agricultural products, and the general trade exports into exports and GDP coherence and synergy are all very conceitedness, every 1% increase will respectively bring LNGDP increase by 0.57%, 0.04%, 0.79%, minus 0.22%, 0.38% and 0.08%, and their contribution to the two GDP targets arithmetic average and pull are not too much.At last ,the article based on the suggestion of foreign trade and economic growth in Hebei province of empirical analysis, puts some advisee in order to strengthen the foreign trade and pull GDP in Hebei province .For example ,Hebei province should chang from the quantity expansion to quality expansion, Raw material type products exported to the deep processing products exported, listed in exported to the brand, fixed export market to diversify export market shift, and optimize the import commodity structure, strengthen efforts to attract foreign Investment.

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The Effects of International Trade on Carbon Emissions in China

On 19/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

Nearly a century, the Earth is experiencing a significant change in warming climate features. So the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases which result in this phenomenon become the focus of national attention. For China, the foreign trade has played a critical role in promoting Economic development, but there are Environmental externalities in the process of foreign trade growth, and China’s Economic growth remains extensive mode. At the same time, due to the production technology for energy-consuming sector relatively backward, it leads to a surge demand for fossil and other energies, thus emit large quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and trigger a series of Environmental problems.In this context, the purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between China’s foreign trade and carbon emissions, and analyze the impacts of foreign trade on carbon emissions from the theoretical and empirical analysis based on politics, Economics, trade theories and econometric methods. This helps us comprehensively understand China’s trade impact on carbon emissions, and provides theoretical basis and practical guidance on the formulation of the principle of energy saving policies, in order to promote China’s economy into the low-carbon path of development, and achieve Economic development of benign cycle.On the basis of the relevant theoretical and empirical research, firstly I explained the root cause of environmental problems from an economic point of view which is the existence of externalities and market failure. And then I analyzed foreign trade impact on carbon emissions from the theoretical level, which can be divided into six effects, such as scale effect, income effect, structural effect, technical effect, the allocation effect and regulatory effect; then I calculated the quantity of carbon emissions and the total and regional characteristics of China’s carbon emissions. Used empirical econometric analysis methods, I made use of the provinces in China,2000-2009panel data to analyze the relationship between foreign trade and carbon emissions. Hereafter the panel data of all the provinces is grouped according to the foreign trade openness, and I further analyzed the relationship between openness and carbon emissions using empirical research; Second, through time-series data of China1980-2010, and I further analyzed long-term cointegration relationship of the overall carbon emissions and the structure of foreign trade goods. The corresponding conclusion is:China’s exports and carbon dioxide emissions are highly positively correlated, while imports had different effects on different results for the provinces. Export elasticity coefficient in the areas open to foreign trade is higher. With the reduction of the degree of openness, the elasticity coefficient is gradually reduced. And with the reduction of openness, the effects of import become smaller and smaller. The existence of long-term cointegration relationship among carbon emissions, the proportion of industrial exports and the proportion of imports of primary products, both have increased carbon emissions. The results provide a basis for the region to develop appropriate energy saving policies. Finally, the results of theoretical and empirical analysis help us coordinate the relationship between foreign trade and carbon emissions, and adjust the structure of foreign trade goods, achieve low-carbon trade.

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An Empirical Research on the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Shanghai

On 04/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

In retrospect of those countries that have realized quick Economic growth in recent years, international trade has always played the important role of a propeller. Global Economic growth always proves the conclusion. Shanghai’s Economic development path also demonstrates such a fact. That is, since economic reform, economic development speed is evidently quicker than before and the economic growth rate enhanced greatly.As the outside factor of economic growth, foreign trade has received much attention from researchers. The relationship between foreign trade and economic growth and the way in which foreign trade influences economic growth are important issues that nations must face while designing economic development strategies.The first chapter discussed the research background, relating research result, and then I gave the research method and guideline of my thesis. Based on this, I summarize the innovative points of the thesis.

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Influence of Appreciation of RMB on Chinese Foreign Trade and Suggestions

On 23/02/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

Since July21,2005RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform the exchange rate continued on the slow rate of appreciation. The data that comes from Chinese foreign currency trading center shows that the middle price of RMB to the US dollar breaks through6.3429in July25,2012. While the outside pressure on RMB appreciation continues to grow, the market expects that the RMB exchange rate will continue to rise, which will make Chinese foreign trade have a certain impact. This paper for the small amplitude slow appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, exchange rate movements impact on foreign trade theory elaboration and evaluation on the basis of political factors described in recent years our appreciation of the renminbi and Economic factors, and comparative review of the RMB the exchange rate formation mechanism reform process, as well as the impact of RMB appreciation on the foreign trade of China’s Economic walks of life.The paper starts to analyze that Chinese RMB exchange rate will remain stable to slowly rising with the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate theory analysis. How the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will influence China’s foreign trade commodity structure. This paper will further validates the conclusions and macro and micro suggestions on China’s exchange rate reform and foreign trade structure.

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Financial Development and Foreign Trade:Evidence from Yangtze River Delta

On 19/02/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

With the Economic globalization, the finance and the trade is increasingly becoming the core and the engine that drives Economic growth, meanwhile the fusion and interaction between finance development and foreign trade is increasingly becoming prominent in the region as well as inter-region. Yangtze River delta is typically representative of China’s export-oriented economy development, and is a leader in the financial development process. In the context of China’s foreign trade growth slowing down, the research on the intrinsic link between finance development and foreign trade in Yangtze River delta have important practical significance.After a literature review about financial development and foreign trade, the characteristics and statuses of financial development of Yangtze River Delta are firstly analyzed from three aspects of scale structure and efficiency. Secondly, this paper studies the development situation of foreign trade and discusses the inherent problems. Finally, the experience influence regard to financial development on the scale and structure of foreign trade is tested.Applying the panel data of16prefecture-level cities in Yangtze River delta and using the fixed effects and the first-order differential estimate technical, this paper finds that bank intermediation development significantly promotes trade scale, and stock market development impedes foreign trade to a certain extent. This paper also finds that financial intermediation development significantly promotes upgrading of export trade structure using the panel data on two provinces and one city in Yangtze River delta and seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) estimate technical. The empirical results suggest that further accelerating the process of financial intermediation is of great significance for promoting the development of foreign trade and Economic growth in the Yangtze River delta region.

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ChangJi Tu Foreign Trade Development and Opening Pilot Area of Jilin Province Economic Development Relationship with Empirical Research

On 16/02/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

In recent years one deepened step by step along with the reform and open policy and the internationalization advancement, the Chinese economy swift growth, the foreign trade was getting bigger and bigger to Economic growth’s influence, any country impossible under the condition which stopped all foreign contact to obtain the development. With the aid in the foreign trade, the country which some economies fell behind originally realizes the economy to soar, has verified the foreign trade is urges the Economic growth”the engine”this important conclusion.In 2008, was further advances the regional economies construction and the reform and open policy, the State Council and in 1999 has established after 1992 developed Hunchun and Yanbianzhou’s plan, also gives a written reply to subordinate “Chinese Tumen Jiang Region Cooperation Development Plan Summary – – – take Chang Ji Tu as Development To open Forerunner Area”. Will be Chang (Changchun) Ji (Jilin) Tu (Tumen Jiang) to develop opens the forerunner area construction official rise for the national strategy.In had chief Chang Ji Tu development to open the forerunner area and the Jilin Province area Economic relationships aspect research gradually are in recent years many, but mostly studied the centralism in view in the industrial structure and the region characteristic aspect, was also quite defective regarding the long lucky chart foreign trade aspect’s research. This article take this as a starting point, the long lucky chart forerunner area foreign trade and the Jilin Province GDP correlation data has conducted the empirical study since according to 1990-2008 years, explores the long lucky chart forerunner area foreign trade and the Jilin Province economic growth causal relation inner link.The first chapter, introduction. Elaborated the paper selected topic background and the significance, the domestic and foreign research present situation and this article study Basic mentality, content and the innovation place. The second chapter, foreign trade and economic growth outline. Introduced the foreign trade and economic growth’s concept as well as the correlation theories, showed between the foreign trade and the economic growth relations theoretically.The third chapter, Changjitu foreign trade and Jilin Province economic development history and present situation. Divides three parts to explain separately Changjitu forerunner area and foreign trade’s development process and the Jilin Province economic development history evolution and the present situation, carry on the introduction finally to Changjitu forerunner area using the foreign capital situation and make the summary analysis to the Jilin Province foreign degree of openness.The fourth chapter, Changjitu forerunner area foreign trade to Jilin Province economic growth influence empirical analysis. Using cooperates the entire analysis method and the relevant model expends to Chang ji tu forerunner area value of import and export with the Jilin Province growth factor relations carries on the empirical analysis. This article uses the statistical measurement analysis software, carries on the ADF examination, the association entire analysis, the Granger causal relation examination to 1990-2008 year data, thus during discovers the relations.The fifth chapter, enhances the foreign trade, to promote the Jilin Province economic growth countermeasure suggestion. In view of the paper in findings, from the improvement import and export angle, the adjustment merchandise trade structure, enhanced the government to support angles and so on dynamics to put forward the corresponding policy-type proposal.

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Analysis of Impact of Foreign Tarde on Employment Based on China’s Manufacturing Industry Panel Data

On 27/01/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

In recent decades, the Economic relation among countries (regions) in the world has been increasingly closed, international trade have played a more important role in the Economic development of a country (region). International trade can be seen as not only the international flow or exchange of goods and services, but also be seen as international flow of factors of productions included in goods and services. Labor is one of the important factors of production, so a country’s labor market will be affected by the development of its foreign trade. Since the reform and opening, the link between China and the world become more closely, the development’s speed of foreign trade is high, especially when entering into WTO in2001, China’s foreign trade is entering into a phase of acceleration of growth. The volume of trade amounted to$2.9trillion in2010, account for50%of GDP, the trade of industrial products accounted over80%of total trade, so the trade of China’s manufacturing has played an important role in Economic development. China’s manufacturing has always been the main sector to absorb labor force, the employment in China’s manufacturing accounted for more than28%of total employment in average from1999to2008, it can be said that changes in the level of manufacturing employment bound to affect overall level of employment in China. So, how much impact to domestic employment caused by the development of China’s manufacturing trade? How much difference in the impact of trade on employment among the different types of manufacturing industry? This paper attempts to answer these questions.There are five chapters. Chapter1relates to the proposition of the background and meaning of this paper, shows the relevant research situation now home and abroad, locating the perspective of this study, generalizing the method, and fixing the framework, which is the basis of the following analysis. Chapter2elaborates the transmission mechanism in impact of trade on employment in three aspects:factor content of trade and demand for labor, trade and labor-demand elasticity, the way of impact of trade on employment, and make focus on mechanism in effect of trade structure on impact of trade on the employment, these provides a theoretical support for the following empirical analysis. Chapter3uses data and diagrams to analyze the characteristics and internal relations between trade and employment of different factor ratio properties in manufacturing industries. Chapter4is the empirical part of this article, discussed from three aspects:First, based on the panel data between the year1999to2008, the empirical results shows:export trade boost the employment growth significantly, import trade has a negative impact on employment growth, the one term lagged of employment has a positive impact on current employment significantly, indicating that the pulling effect of trade on employment can not be fully manifested in the current period. Second, on the base of factor ratio properties, the manufacturing industries has been divided into labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries, the empirical results shows:export trade boost the employment growth in three industries, the import of technology-intensive industries also has a positive impact on employment growth, in current, the export of labor-intensive industry has brought the biggest pull impact on employment, while the technology-intensive industry has the largest lagged effect of employment, indicating that technology-intensive industry has brought long-term pull effect on employment. Third, by building trade competitiveness indicators, manufacturing industry is reclassified as strong competitiveness industry, weak competitiveness industry, competitiveness transforming from weak to strong industry, the empirical results shows:export trade boost the employment growth in three industries, in current, the export of strong competitiveness industry has biggest pull effect on employment, while the competitiveness transforming from weak to strong industry has the largest lagged effect of employment, indicating that competitiveness transforming from weak to strong industry’s trade has brought long-term pull effect on employment. Finally, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations.

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The Empirical Research of Impact on Port Logistics into Foreign Trade

On 17/01/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

With the development of global economy and international trade,resource andfactors of production are flowing internationally more frequently, which means higherrequirements of transportation scale and efficiency. As crucial junctures in thelogistics process in the all–around transportation net,all ports are taking use of theiradvantages to develop port logistic,enlarge functions and promote competitive powerto supply all-around high quality services to customers in the tide of shipping beinglarger and using of containers.In the meanwhile,port logistic has great influence inthe develop of Foreign Trade.Therefore,it becomes gradually a focus to discuss aboutport logistics and Foreign Trade.Article took the relationship between Chinese port logistics and foreign trade forthe study. In the part of theoretical analysis, based on Economic theory to explore theimpact mechanism of port logistics and foreign trade, being different from theprevious one, the article established the evaluation system of the port logistics, fromboth supply and demand of port logistics to consider the influence on foreign trade. Inthe empirical part, different from the past, a single or a few major ports in the studysample, the article selected Chinese five port groups as research sample; five portgroups include nationally representative ports of all waters, making the study morerepresentative. Article did not choose to use econometric methods but to build astructural equation model; chose the data of1995-2009, the results showed that thelogistics input and output had positive impacts on existence of foreign trade, the inputhad positive impact on the output, and the impact of input is bigger. Port coastlinelength, number of ports and berths of more than10,000tons are important influencefactors. Indicators measuring the port output capabilities including port cargothroughput, foreign trade port container throughput and throughput of the port trade.Finally, based on theoretical analysis and empirical results of the analysis, Article putforward the healthy policy of Chinese port logistics.

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Study on the Employment Effect of International Trade in China’s Central Region

On 02/01/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

With the depth of reform and opening up, China has gradually accelerated to its trade liberalization process and witnesses the gradual expansion of total employment, rapid Economic growth and other significant improvements of Social indicators, which create a “China miracle.” Meanwhile the growth rate of trade of the central region is higher than the region’s Economic growth rate and also higher than the national growth rate of trade, and so the central region is one of the fastest growing regions in China. While the central region occupied about 28% of the population in China in which Agricultural population is huge. However, in face of China’s urban-rural issues of dual economic structure, employment is particularly prominent. Therefore in this context, the study on the effects of employment of foreign trade in central region, especially the role of the trade structure in transfer process of labors, has important practical significance. It is worth studying that can the central and western regions get help from the eastern industrial transfer to develop its foreign trade, gradually bring the optimization of the industrial structure, allocate the labor resources efficiently and promote economic takeoff. However the article defines the structure of foreign trade of primary products (mainly Agricultural products) trade and manufactured goods trade.In this paper, firstly I make a general description of the foreign trade and employment status of the central region and summarize the major problems of trade and employment; then I analysis the impact mechanism of the foreign trade on the employment, and explain the relationship between the foreign trade and the employment, and bring forward how the unique structure of trade in central region affects employment. In the empirical analysis, with the time series data of the year from 1990 to 2009 of Anhui province, I use cointegration analysis, error correction model and Granger causality test methods to analysis the impact of foreign trade products structure of the central region on the scale of employment, and the employment structure. The results show that both import and export of primary products in central region will reduce employment opportunities in this area, which due to the crowding-out effect; industrial products export trade,which increase the employment opportunities 3 times than the agricultural’s, is the main factor to increase regional employment the development of export trade and economic growth is conducive to improve employment opportunities; economic growth optimizes the labor and employment structure, which leads the employment effects of agriculture from positive to negative and the employment effects of industry to become higher; to speed up the development of agricultural trade, the central region must increase scientific and technological input in agriculture; the increase of employment level in central region benefits economic growth and accumulation; long-term employment stability is based on the performance of industrial development in central region.In the end, this paper puts forward the following suggestions in external trade development and increase of employment rate in center region in China. In the first place, we might optimize the structure of agricultural trade, transform the export structure and expand high-quality agricultural imports; furthermore, government in center region should support greatly in industry transfer and accelerate the development of manufactured goods trade; In addition, we could increase the technological content of export products and selectively import manufactured goods; moreover, we may optimize trade structure in center region and promote the efficient allocation of labor resources; ultimately, cooperation within and between regions should be encouraged to build a harmonious development of export-oriented economy mode.