Influence of Appreciation of RMB on Chinese Foreign Trade and Suggestions

On 23/02/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

Since July21,2005RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform the exchange rate continued on the slow rate of appreciation. The data that comes from Chinese foreign currency trading center shows that the middle price of RMB to the US dollar breaks through6.3429in July25,2012. While the outside pressure on RMB appreciation continues to grow, the market expects that the RMB exchange rate will continue to rise, which will make Chinese foreign trade have a certain impact. This paper for the small amplitude slow appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, exchange rate movements impact on foreign trade theory elaboration and evaluation on the basis of political factors described in recent years our appreciation of the renminbi and Economic factors, and comparative review of the RMB the exchange rate formation mechanism reform process, as well as the impact of RMB appreciation on the foreign trade of China’s Economic walks of life.The paper starts to analyze that Chinese RMB exchange rate will remain stable to slowly rising with the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate theory analysis. How the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will influence China’s foreign trade commodity structure. This paper will further validates the conclusions and macro and micro suggestions on China’s exchange rate reform and foreign trade structure.


Financial Development and Foreign Trade:Evidence from Yangtze River Delta

On 19/02/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

With the Economic globalization, the finance and the trade is increasingly becoming the core and the engine that drives Economic growth, meanwhile the fusion and interaction between finance development and foreign trade is increasingly becoming prominent in the region as well as inter-region. Yangtze River delta is typically representative of China’s export-oriented economy development, and is a leader in the financial development process. In the context of China’s foreign trade growth slowing down, the research on the intrinsic link between finance development and foreign trade in Yangtze River delta have important practical significance.After a literature review about financial development and foreign trade, the characteristics and statuses of financial development of Yangtze River Delta are firstly analyzed from three aspects of scale structure and efficiency. Secondly, this paper studies the development situation of foreign trade and discusses the inherent problems. Finally, the experience influence regard to financial development on the scale and structure of foreign trade is tested.Applying the panel data of16prefecture-level cities in Yangtze River delta and using the fixed effects and the first-order differential estimate technical, this paper finds that bank intermediation development significantly promotes trade scale, and stock market development impedes foreign trade to a certain extent. This paper also finds that financial intermediation development significantly promotes upgrading of export trade structure using the panel data on two provinces and one city in Yangtze River delta and seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) estimate technical. The empirical results suggest that further accelerating the process of financial intermediation is of great significance for promoting the development of foreign trade and Economic growth in the Yangtze River delta region.


ChangJi Tu Foreign Trade Development and Opening Pilot Area of Jilin Province Economic Development Relationship with Empirical Research

On 16/02/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

In recent years one deepened step by step along with the reform and open policy and the internationalization advancement, the Chinese economy swift growth, the foreign trade was getting bigger and bigger to Economic growth’s influence, any country impossible under the condition which stopped all foreign contact to obtain the development. With the aid in the foreign trade, the country which some economies fell behind originally realizes the economy to soar, has verified the foreign trade is urges the Economic growth”the engine”this important conclusion.In 2008, was further advances the regional economies construction and the reform and open policy, the State Council and in 1999 has established after 1992 developed Hunchun and Yanbianzhou’s plan, also gives a written reply to subordinate “Chinese Tumen Jiang Region Cooperation Development Plan Summary – – – take Chang Ji Tu as Development To open Forerunner Area”. Will be Chang (Changchun) Ji (Jilin) Tu (Tumen Jiang) to develop opens the forerunner area construction official rise for the national strategy.In had chief Chang Ji Tu development to open the forerunner area and the Jilin Province area Economic relationships aspect research gradually are in recent years many, but mostly studied the centralism in view in the industrial structure and the region characteristic aspect, was also quite defective regarding the long lucky chart foreign trade aspect’s research. This article take this as a starting point, the long lucky chart forerunner area foreign trade and the Jilin Province GDP correlation data has conducted the empirical study since according to 1990-2008 years, explores the long lucky chart forerunner area foreign trade and the Jilin Province economic growth causal relation inner link.The first chapter, introduction. Elaborated the paper selected topic background and the significance, the domestic and foreign research present situation and this article study Basic mentality, content and the innovation place. The second chapter, foreign trade and economic growth outline. Introduced the foreign trade and economic growth’s concept as well as the correlation theories, showed between the foreign trade and the economic growth relations theoretically.The third chapter, Changjitu foreign trade and Jilin Province economic development history and present situation. Divides three parts to explain separately Changjitu forerunner area and foreign trade’s development process and the Jilin Province economic development history evolution and the present situation, carry on the introduction finally to Changjitu forerunner area using the foreign capital situation and make the summary analysis to the Jilin Province foreign degree of openness.The fourth chapter, Changjitu forerunner area foreign trade to Jilin Province economic growth influence empirical analysis. Using cooperates the entire analysis method and the relevant model expends to Chang ji tu forerunner area value of import and export with the Jilin Province growth factor relations carries on the empirical analysis. This article uses the statistical measurement analysis software, carries on the ADF examination, the association entire analysis, the Granger causal relation examination to 1990-2008 year data, thus during discovers the relations.The fifth chapter, enhances the foreign trade, to promote the Jilin Province economic growth countermeasure suggestion. In view of the paper in findings, from the improvement import and export angle, the adjustment merchandise trade structure, enhanced the government to support angles and so on dynamics to put forward the corresponding policy-type proposal.


Analysis of Impact of Foreign Tarde on Employment Based on China’s Manufacturing Industry Panel Data

On 27/01/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

In recent decades, the Economic relation among countries (regions) in the world has been increasingly closed, international trade have played a more important role in the Economic development of a country (region). International trade can be seen as not only the international flow or exchange of goods and services, but also be seen as international flow of factors of productions included in goods and services. Labor is one of the important factors of production, so a country’s labor market will be affected by the development of its foreign trade. Since the reform and opening, the link between China and the world become more closely, the development’s speed of foreign trade is high, especially when entering into WTO in2001, China’s foreign trade is entering into a phase of acceleration of growth. The volume of trade amounted to$2.9trillion in2010, account for50%of GDP, the trade of industrial products accounted over80%of total trade, so the trade of China’s manufacturing has played an important role in economic development. China’s manufacturing has always been the main sector to absorb labor force, the employment in China’s manufacturing accounted for more than28%of total employment in average from1999to2008, it can be said that changes in the level of manufacturing employment bound to affect overall level of employment in China. So, how much impact to domestic employment caused by the development of China’s manufacturing trade? How much difference in the impact of trade on employment among the different types of manufacturing industry? This paper attempts to answer these questions.There are five chapters. Chapter1relates to the proposition of the background and meaning of this paper, shows the relevant research situation now home and abroad, locating the perspective of this study, generalizing the method, and fixing the framework, which is the basis of the following analysis. Chapter2elaborates the transmission mechanism in impact of trade on employment in three aspects:factor content of trade and demand for labor, trade and labor-demand elasticity, the way of impact of trade on employment, and make focus on mechanism in effect of trade structure on impact of trade on the employment, these provides a theoretical support for the following empirical analysis. Chapter3uses data and diagrams to analyze the characteristics and internal relations between trade and employment of different factor ratio properties in manufacturing industries. Chapter4is the empirical part of this article, discussed from three aspects:First, based on the panel data between the year1999to2008, the empirical results shows:export trade boost the employment growth significantly, import trade has a negative impact on employment growth, the one term lagged of employment has a positive impact on current employment significantly, indicating that the pulling effect of trade on employment can not be fully manifested in the current period. Second, on the base of factor ratio properties, the manufacturing industries has been divided into labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries, the empirical results shows:export trade boost the employment growth in three industries, the import of technology-intensive industries also has a positive impact on employment growth, in current, the export of labor-intensive industry has brought the biggest pull impact on employment, while the technology-intensive industry has the largest lagged effect of employment, indicating that technology-intensive industry has brought long-term pull effect on employment. Third, by building trade competitiveness indicators, manufacturing industry is reclassified as strong competitiveness industry, weak competitiveness industry, competitiveness transforming from weak to strong industry, the empirical results shows:export trade boost the employment growth in three industries, in current, the export of strong competitiveness industry has biggest pull effect on employment, while the competitiveness transforming from weak to strong industry has the largest lagged effect of employment, indicating that competitiveness transforming from weak to strong industry’s trade has brought long-term pull effect on employment. Finally, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations.


The Empirical Research of Impact on Port Logistics into Foreign Trade

On 17/01/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

With the development of global economy and international trade,resource andfactors of production are flowing internationally more frequently, which means higherrequirements of transportation scale and efficiency. As crucial junctures in thelogistics process in the all–around transportation net,all ports are taking use of theiradvantages to develop port logistic,enlarge functions and promote competitive powerto supply all-around high quality services to customers in the tide of shipping beinglarger and using of containers.In the meanwhile,port logistic has great influence inthe develop of Foreign Trade.Therefore,it becomes gradually a focus to discuss aboutport logistics and Foreign Trade.Article took the relationship between Chinese port logistics and foreign trade forthe study. In the part of theoretical analysis, based on Economic theory to explore theimpact mechanism of port logistics and foreign trade, being different from theprevious one, the article established the evaluation system of the port logistics, fromboth supply and demand of port logistics to consider the influence on foreign trade. Inthe empirical part, different from the past, a single or a few major ports in the studysample, the article selected Chinese five port groups as research sample; five portgroups include nationally representative ports of all waters, making the study morerepresentative. Article did not choose to use econometric methods but to build astructural equation model; chose the data of1995-2009, the results showed that thelogistics input and output had positive impacts on existence of foreign trade, the inputhad positive impact on the output, and the impact of input is bigger. Port coastlinelength, number of ports and berths of more than10,000tons are important influencefactors. Indicators measuring the port output capabilities including port cargothroughput, foreign trade port container throughput and throughput of the port trade.Finally, based on theoretical analysis and empirical results of the analysis, Article putforward the healthy policy of Chinese port logistics.


Study on the Employment Effect of International Trade in China’s Central Region

On 02/01/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

With the depth of reform and opening up, China has gradually accelerated to its trade liberalization process and witnesses the gradual expansion of total employment, rapid Economic growth and other significant improvements of Social indicators, which create a “China miracle.” Meanwhile the growth rate of trade of the central region is higher than the region’s Economic growth rate and also higher than the national growth rate of trade, and so the central region is one of the fastest growing regions in China. While the central region occupied about 28% of the population in China in which Agricultural population is huge. However, in face of China’s urban-rural issues of dual Economic structure, employment is particularly prominent. Therefore in this context, the study on the effects of employment of foreign trade in central region, especially the role of the trade structure in transfer process of labors, has important practical significance. It is worth studying that can the central and western regions get help from the eastern industrial transfer to develop its foreign trade, gradually bring the optimization of the industrial structure, allocate the labor resources efficiently and promote economic takeoff. However the article defines the structure of foreign trade of primary products (mainly Agricultural products) trade and manufactured goods trade.In this paper, firstly I make a general description of the foreign trade and employment status of the central region and summarize the major problems of trade and employment; then I analysis the impact mechanism of the foreign trade on the employment, and explain the relationship between the foreign trade and the employment, and bring forward how the unique structure of trade in central region affects employment. In the empirical analysis, with the time series data of the year from 1990 to 2009 of Anhui province, I use cointegration analysis, error correction model and Granger causality test methods to analysis the impact of foreign trade products structure of the central region on the scale of employment, and the employment structure. The results show that both import and export of primary products in central region will reduce employment opportunities in this area, which due to the crowding-out effect; industrial products export trade,which increase the employment opportunities 3 times than the Agricultural’s, is the main factor to increase regional employment the development of export trade and economic growth is conducive to improve employment opportunities; economic growth optimizes the labor and employment structure, which leads the employment effects of agriculture from positive to negative and the employment effects of industry to become higher; to speed up the development of agricultural trade, the central region must increase scientific and technological input in agriculture; the increase of employment level in central region benefits economic growth and accumulation; long-term employment stability is based on the performance of industrial development in central region.In the end, this paper puts forward the following suggestions in external trade development and increase of employment rate in center region in China. In the first place, we might optimize the structure of agricultural trade, transform the export structure and expand high-quality agricultural imports; furthermore, government in center region should support greatly in industry transfer and accelerate the development of manufactured goods trade; In addition, we could increase the technological content of export products and selectively import manufactured goods; moreover, we may optimize trade structure in center region and promote the efficient allocation of labor resources; ultimately, cooperation within and between regions should be encouraged to build a harmonious development of export-oriented economy mode.


An Empirical Study on Effects of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate on Zhejiang’s Exports and Imports

On 24/11/2014, in Economics papers, by rain

Exchange rate, as the ratio at which one currency can be converted into another currency, is an important factor which determines the competiveness of a country’s products in the international market. Since July 21, 2005, China began to implement an exchange rate system which is market-based, with reference to a basket of currencies and with managed floating. RMB is no longer pegged to the dollar. Since then, RMB, appreciated against the U.S. dollar, exchange rate has been 20.8%. Moreover, After June 22, 2010, the RMB exchange rate began to rise sharply again. Furthermore, in the current international political situation, the pressure of RMB appreciation is still large. How does the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate impact on the import and export trade? A study of RMB exchange rate movements on the impact of changes in China’s exports is significant, not only can help the corporation to strengthen their prevention on exchange rate risk, but also can maintain macroeconomic stability under the current situation. Zhejiang province, as a large district of China’s foreign trade, accumulated total import and export for about $ 253.47 billion in 2010. Compare to 2000, the number has increased by 9.11 times, in which exports for $ 180.48 billion, the cumulative growth since 2000 has been 9.28 times. Zhejiang Province leads the Trade surplus in China 2010. Foreign trade dependence of Zhejiang is as high as 61.94%, much higher than the national average (49.47%). What kinds of impact will RMB exchange rate changes on Zhejiang Province is worthy to study.In this article we will is mainly discuss how the real effective exchange rate impact changes on import and export trade of Zhejiang Province by empirical analysis. The empirical analysis can be divided into two parts. In the first part, we will first figure out the real effective exchange rate of RMB, and then select annual import and export data of Zhejiang Province, 1985-2010, studying the impact of the real effective for total imports and total exports. As a contrast, we select data of ordinary trade and processing trade, from 1992 to 2010. Respectively, we discuss the impact of the real effective exchange rate on the ordinary trade and processing trade exports. The results we can learn from the first empirical analysis are as follows:The results show that, for the model for total exports, exports of ordinary trade , processing trade export, the real effective exchange rate elasticity of exports are: -0.371395, -0.04686, -3.85749. That is, the depreciation of real effective exchange rate will promote the export of Zhejiang Province. Considering Model of total imports, ordinary trade model, processing trade import model, the real effective exchange rate elasticity are: -0.848948, -1.511114, -0.546121. RMB appreciation would lead to reduced imports of Zhejiang Province. Besides exchange rate, some other factors also have significant influences on trade, as this thesis finds out empirically. Foreign income has some influences on export, while the impacts of domestic income on import are much higher than foreign income. The elasticity of foreign income on export is proved as 0.089294、0.127326、0.082651. The elasticity of domestic income on import is 0.424135、0.45807、0.039556. That is to say, the rise of foreign income will increase the export and the rise of domestic income will promote the import. FDI has a positive influence on trade. As to WTO, it has a significant function both on export and import, while the former larger that the latter.In the second part of empirical analysis, we discuss main ten countries or districts who dominate in bilateral trade of Zhejiang. In this article, we select the United States, Japan, Korea, Britain, Germany, France, Italy, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia and other ten countries and regions, export trade data, 1992-2010. The empirical results show that the elasticity of real exchange rate on exports could be both positive and negative, in which the United States, Britain, France, Italy, Korea, Australia is negative, the figures are: -3.040642, -0.419316, -4.310107, -0.658606, -0.766074, -0.636961. In these cases, the appreciation real exchange rate can lead to decrease the export to these countries and districts. As for Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, the elasticity of real exchange rates on exports are 1.925742, 4.725782, 2.912126; RMB real exchange rate appreciation will increase the export.


International trade is not only an economic phenomenon, but associat…

On 23/11/2014, in Economics papers, by rain

International trade is not only an Economic phenomenon, but associates with a variety of geographical, political and cultural factors closely. Some scholars have found that the size of international trade flows is much smaller than trade theory would predict. And the effects of geographical distance on international trade have been weaker than ever before. National culture is an important factor affecting foreign trade. It plays an important role in China’s foreign trade and makes a great contribution to promoting the development of China’s foreign trade by the way of fast, security and stability.Through studying the status of China’s foreign trade, this paper draws the following main conclusions:firstly, China’s foreign trade occupies an important position of the current world trade; secondly, it has a huge potential for development; thirdly, there is disparity between country structure of China’s foreign trade and imports and exports trade structure of China’s foreign trade. Based on these conclusions, this paper employs national cultural dimensions theory, cultural cluster theory and international trade theory, and then uses trade gravity model to analyze how national cultural distance influences China’s foreign trade. Research content and conclusions are as follows:1) The national cultural distance has a significant impact on China’s foreign trade. As an entire variable, national cultural distance has a negative impact on China’s foreign trade, while as a combined variable; national cultural distance has double influence on China’s foreign trade. The distance between some cultural dimensions, such as power distance, have positive effect on it, but other cultural dimensions, such as individualism vs. collectivism, have negative a effect on it. 2) The national cultural distance has some different effects between imports and exports. China’s import is influenced more easily than exports by national cultural distance. But there are also some different effects made by different cultural dimensions. China’s export is influenced more easily than imports by national cultural distance on dimensions of individualism vs. collectivism but more difficultly on dimensions of power distance.3) The national cultural distance has different effects between one group countries and other group countries. There are different effects in terms of significance, size, orientation and structural that the gap of cultural dimensions distance influence between China and other countries within group countries with similar culture.


Foreign Trade Development of China in Intra-product Specialization Perspective

On 09/10/2014, in Economics papers, by rain

With the development of Economic globalization, the multi-national corporations extend overseas production network continuously, and intra-product specialization and trade has been an important way for the developing countries to involve in international specialization and trade. China seizes this chance and involves in intra-product specialization and trade by comparative advantage of low-cost labor, resources and other production factors. Since the1990s, processing trade and foreign trade of China have increased dramatically. In promoting the development of foreign trade, intra-product specialization has also brought some questions to China. It is an important and immediate task what are the effects of intra-product specialization to foreign trade and how to solve the existent problems of foreign trade within intra-product specialization that confronts China.This paper introduces the definition, characteristics, process impetus and formation mechanism of intra-product specialization, and study the reasons why China involves in intra-product specialization. Then it reviews the history and analyses the current situation China involves in international specialization. Afterwards, it explores the effects of intra-product specialization on foreign trade commodity structure, geography feature, and trade avails in China, and analyses the influence over the value of import and export and foreign trade disequilibrium by econometrics models. Finally, it discusses the strategies to develop foreign trade of China in intra-product specialization perspective.


Research on Environmental Impact of Foreign Trade of Chinese Cement Products

On 04/10/2014, in Management, by rain

Based on foreign trade and the ecological environment at home and abroad and their relationship, this paper analyses the current situation of Environmental impact in foreign trade of cement products in our country, and studies the Granger causality test method to determine the causal relationships between oreign trade of cement products in our country and the ecological environment. Based on the theory of foreign trade, ecological environment and their relationship,”three effect” on Environmental impact of the foreign trade of Chinese cement products has been analyzed by CGE model empirically, and the effects of import and export trade on the ecological environment and the net effect are separately calculated. Then, data of both cement products production and trade at home and abroad as the foundation, the life cycle assessment method determines the research purpose, scope and Environmental impact factor of ecological environment effect of the foreign trade of Chinese cement products, and accordingly life cycle inventory analysis. Life cycle inventory analysis results are characterized and standardized from nonrenewable resources consumption, global warming, photochemical ozone generating, acidification, eutrophication and human Health damage, using AHP to weight every environment impact assessment type. Finally, AGP method determines the exponent value and the corresponding proportion of the resources consumption coefficients and the environmental impact load. This paper established a index system of environmental impact of the foreign trade of cement product, which could be applied to other products. The conclusion drawn in this paper has important practical significance in the formulation of cement industry regulations and standards, cement products import and export structure adjustment and improvement of equipment and process.