The Research on Risk Management Mechanism of Financing Guarantee Institutions

On 07/04/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

SMEs are a major force in the national economy in China. At present, SMEs account for 99% of the total number of all enterprises, creating value of all final goods and services account for about 60% of GDP, 50% of tax payments, providing about 80% of urban jobs. SMEs with its flexible operation mechanism and market adaptability are an important force for promoting Economic and Social development of China. However, SMEs, due to operational instability, low credit ratings, no sufficient collateral, are difficult to obtain bank loans, leading to difficulties in financing of SMEs, seriously restricting the development of SMEs.Financing guarantee institutions are the financial intermediation services, to provide a proof of credit and responsibility assurance for assets just living in between banks and SMEs. Since the intervention of guarantee, some of the bank loan spread and reduce the risk of bank assets to obtain security guarantees, so that the channels between enterprises and banks become clear up. At present, the number of SME financing guarantee institutions increased to 5547 from the 97, and the guarantee funds raised from the initial 3.0 billion to today’s 338.9 billion Yuan, with an increase of 57 times, respectively, and 113 times, from 2000 to 2010. Guarantee institutions for SMEs in 2010 to provide a secured loan volume has reached 1.1 trillion Yuan, the first time exceeding one trillion Yuan mark.Financing guarantee institutions in mitigating financial constraints of SMEs and strengthening financial institutions lending to SMEs play an extremely active role in this process. In this process, it took over the risk baton from SMEs. Credit environment in China is still not very well now. It’s the road of the survival and development for financing guarantee institutions how to control the risk of a financial institution. Therefore, it’s very important value to study the risk Management mechanism of financing guarantee institutions.

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Study on Bio-disaster Risk Management of the Double Cropping System of Wheat and Maize Based on Production Condition Change in Hebei Province

On 05/04/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

The yields of wheat and maize, the main grain crops in Hebei province, are restricted by bio-disaster risk for a long time. In recent years, the new changes of diseases, insect pests and weeds of wheat and maize have caused by the changes of production conditions including climatic conditions, tillage Management, cultivar variations, water and fertilizer Management and cross-operating of combine harvesters, meanwhile, which increased the risk of the food security production. At present, the bio-disaster Management of winter wheat and maize is mainly crisis management but not risk management in Hebei Province. The prevention and treatment of diseases, insect pests and weeds of wheat and maize were developed gradually and very little effects with a high Investment. Under the new production condition, it is an important measure to enhance the research in bio-disaster risk management of wheat and maize for carrying out the plant protection principle of”prevention-first and combination with control”, which is also an important guarantee for reducing possibly the yield loss of wheat and maize, the food security production and the sustainable development.In this paper, the bio-disaster situations of wheat and maize, in 32 monitoring sites from the three different ecotypes, Piedmont, Heilonggang and Eastern Plains in Heibei Province from 2000 to 2010, were analysised by the methods of documentary research and quantitative and qualitative analysis. The meteorological data of Gu’an, Qingyuan and Quzhou counties was analysised from 1981 to 2010. The situation of harvester application and the degree of cognition and implementation to the bio-disaster risk management were analysised by investigating the plant protection department workers of the nineteen counties to clear the occurrence of the diseases, insect pests and weeds, the effects of the changes of production conditions and the present situation and problems of bio-disaster risk management in Hebei province. In the last, the background, recognition and analysis of the bio-disaster in accordance with the process of risk management were cleared, and then the bio-disaster risk evaluation index system of wheat and maize was established by the method of PRA multiple indexes synthetic analysis for pest risk. The Basic scheme for handling risk was raised by setting the calculation formula of risk value. The results are as follows:The main species of diseases, pests and weeds had reached up to 15, 20 and 21 respectively in Hebei province. The main diseases and pests were Powdery Mildew, Sharp Eyespot, Scab, Aphids, Wheat-spider and Wheat midge with Descurainia Sophia as the dominant species in all weeds. There were four characteristics about the occurrence of the diseases, insect pests and weeds, including some secondary diseases and insect pests becoming to the dominant, the complex and diverse weeds species, a tendency expanding from the former location to North and East and a continuous damage to wheat and maize. The pest species of maize increased significantly with some diseases and pests, for example, the northern and southern left blight, seedling blight, root rot, brown spot, ear rot, corn borer, thrips, soil insects, armyworm and so on. Rough dwarf disease began to be popular in some regions even with no production. At the same time, the top rot disease and the proxenus lepigone took place in a large area as the new disease and pest.The bio-disasters of wheat and maize were affected significantly by the changes of the production conditions in Hebei province. Since 1981 to 2010, the average temperature has an increasing trend in Hebei province with a decreased negative accumulated temperature year by year. The precipitation and the relative humidity also decreased. There is a positive correlation between the changes of precipitation and relative humidity with the disease area of scab, powdery mildew and leaf spot, but no correlation with the area of insect pests. Aphids of wheat and corn borer were affected significantly by the increasing annual average temperature, but no effect on the other insect pests and diseases. The reduction of negative accumulated temperature could increase the over wintering Basic number of pathogen, eggs of insect pests and weed seeds. The occurrence and joint damage extents of the diseases and insect pests were aggravated by the no-tillage planting and straw returning. It is very easy that wheat and maize were infected by a variety of pathogen and insect pests because of the single resistance and the wrong management of water and fertilizer. For example, the high occurrence area of Sharp Eyespot was caused by the over application of nitrogen fertilizer. In some extent, the significant changes of variety, the new disease and insect pest and the obvious tendency expanding to north and east were caused by the cross-operations of combine harvesters, as the good media spreading the diseases and insect pests. In a word, the occurrences of bio-disasters were promoted by the changes of production conditions, and then the risk of food security production was aslo improved in Hebei province.At present, the bio-disaster management mostly depends on the crisis management in Hebei province, with the proportion of 95.6 percent, but the proportion of risk management is very poor. There are mainly four problems for bio-disaster risk management in Hebei province including lack of risk management knowledge, the low perceived importance of the government, lack of the legal and technical specification, Investment, assessment staff and unreasonable Investment structure.During the bio-disaster risk management process of wheat and maize, the bio-disaster risk assessment index system and evaluation standard were constructed according to the distribution, potential risk, production conditions, the possibility of spread and diffusion and difficulty of management. The risk calculation formula, R = (P1·P2·P3·P4·P5)1/5, was set, and the Basic measures to handle the risk also were proposed. In this study, the scientific basis and technical reference were provided for bio-disaster risk assessment of wheat and maize in Hebei province.


Purchasing Risk Management in OEM Project in HP Company

On 27/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

As the development of China’s manufacturing industry, OEM has become a very common and popular business model in the field, especially in IT industry. In OEM model, brand owner can benefit from the low cost due to OEM supplier’s big scale advantage and their professional service in production Management and supply chain Management. Additionally and more importantly, brand owner can therefore focus themselves on the development of brand building, marketing and its distribution channels. However, reversely, as many things are not controlled by brand owner, if they cannot manage well and predict, they will be probably constrained by supplier and out of control finally. So, it is of significant importance to manage the various risks in OEM project during the project Management process.This article is standing from the point of the brand owner-HP’ s view, taking the theory of project risk management, research the kinds of the purchasing risks in their OEM project, find out solutions, and change the passive situation in the newly established department, for the reason of incomplete process system and employee’s lack of experience. Firstly, we realize the purchasing risks in HP’s OEM project, using the methods of Risk Management Files and Brainstorming. There are two kinds of risks, including timing risk and schedule risk. Secondly, risk evaluation. Finding out the risk factors which causing the purchasing risks, through Analytical Hierarchy Process. Thirdly, make copying strategy. Preventing, transferring or accepting the risks to each risk factor. At last, implement monitoring plan. Follow up the development of each risk factor and update them into the Risk Management File continuously.


Steel Processing and Distribution Center Project Risk Management

On 26/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

steel processing and distribution logistics services, as a new way. and its function is to have a stock of steel, and steel in the center of the cut, processing, inspection, distribution in the best time to each customer. Based on the above, the major domestic steel mills are in the steel processing and distribution centers to develop the construction project, in order to obtain the reduced supply chain costs, improve competitiveness, and stable sales channels to meet positive role. But at the same time, steel processing and distribution center project in the face many uncertainties, uncertainty factors can make preparations in advance, rather than risk factors are often uncertain, it is possible to bring the progress of project construction will extended, the cost overruns, waste of resources and even the serious consequences of abortion project. Therefore, the strengthening of project risk Management, develop appropriate measures to building the entire project of great significance.Based on China’s current steel processing and distribution center construction of the project development and risk Management situation, especially for steel Investment projects, from the perspective of the whole process of project risk management research. Shougang Construction of a typical project, for example, for such construction projects of their own characteristics, the use of risk management theory and method, analysis of risk factors, risk factor identification, risk assessment and risk control, to analyze. Through the risk management of such projects, the accumulation of experience in project risk management to achieve through risk identification, risk analysis and risk assessment, to understand the risks of the project, and as a basis for rational use of various risk response measures, management methods, techniques and tools for the project effectively control the risks, and properly handle the adverse consequences of risk events, the highest goal is to ensure the overall project cost of the least goals.In recent years, as an extension of the steel industry, steel industry chain processing and distribution center in China’s rapid development of construction projects, as the steel industry, the transformation of Economic growth and achieve added value and competitiveness of important ways. Meanwhile, with project management and risk management theory and practice in the use of project construction and operation of risk management also has made substantial progress, but European and American steel companies have been through the same steel processing and distribution centers, logistics, information flow, capital integration flow management, reduce costs, improve service and achieve a profit level compared to our steel processing and distribution center project in the construction and management, there are still a big gap, especially in project risk management, risk identification, risk to avoid and control measures need to strengthen research, raise the level.


Research on Risk Management of XX Real Estate Project in Weifang City

On 22/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

Real estate as an important pillar of the national economy is becoming moreand more important. The real estate development is a complex process of riskthroughout the risk of impact of each process varies. The current real estateindustry under the influence of national policy, showing large fluctuations,the real estate Investment will also face more challenges. Risk managementhas become the key factors influencing project success, also will become theimportant symbol of the level of Enterprise Management.Based on the real estate Investment risk theory, starting from the angle ofrisk Management, the article shows the real estate development project riskmanagement systematically and summarizes the project risk identification andevaluation methods. Then, combined with the current real estate investment inthe status quo, system analysis and identification of risk factors in real estatedevelopment process are given. Followed by empirical research on theWeifang XX real estate project, the article analyzes the internal and externalenvironment of the project which, combined with characteristics of the project,identifying the risks encountered by the various stages in the operation of theproject. Through the process of risk assessment studies, from the risk factorsthat the project may face, risk factors evaluation index system andcomprehensive evaluation model of project risk are established.Then,throughthe analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight, the fuzzycomprehensive evaluation is used for Weifang XX real estate project riskevaluation.Finally,according to the evaluation results, countermeasures andsuggestions are given from risk Management processes, risk managementmethods and risk management objectives and so on.


Software Risk Management Model and Empirical Study

On 17/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

The software industry is the fastest growing industry in the world. Software project is very complex, highly technical and fast-updating; with its products’hard-to-measure abstract .All of them make the high risk of software projects. Besides, along with fast development of software industry, software projects become larger and larger, more complex and more complex, with its risk more difficult to control, leading to the failure of the software projects.Prior to completing the project, because of the lack of an effective prediction tool, enterprises should not predict the success of the project eventually; it is likely to result in major losses. Based on the summary of the software project risk Management study in the past, this paper has done the work as following:Firstly,through combining literature reading in software project Management ,this paper gets 50 risk factors. By prioritizing the risk factors reflected in the questionnaire surveys ,the paper obtains the Top 10 risk factors which is in line with developing characteristics of software project in our country, including poorly defined requirements, unrealistic cost and schedule estimation, insufficient plan, poor communication, process problems, staff shortage, poor change management ,poor project execution, external influence problems and implementation problems.Secondly, based on these Top 10 risk factors, according to the discriminate analysis of questionnaire data, the paper creates discriminate model which can quantitatively determine the success of a project. In the early time of the project, it can give specific information (quantitative data) and help people take measures to avoid the failure of the project finally.The data that demonstration analysis needed is obtained in the methods of questionnaire survey. There are 57 valid answers in the 60 projects. Discriminate model correctly predicted 44 of the 57 projects in the reality. the correct rate is 77.2%, which supports the hypothesis that “failure factors of unsuccessful software development projects are significantly higher than failure factors of the successful software projects.”


A Optimal Design of the Sales Channels for Electronic Components Products of HW Reflective Materials, Inc

On 16/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

With the rapid development of the marketing and the homogeneity of the products, the market gradually transforms from the product-driven to the channel-driven, and the importance of the marketing channel becomes more and more obvious, and channel becomes the key factor of the competition among enterprises. In the competitive market, who have mastered the channels will master the initiative. To maintain the stability and unimpeded of the channel become an unavoidable topic of the Enterprise.First of all, based on the introduction of the sales channels of HW reflective materials, Inc, by using some knowledge of Porter Five Competitive Forces Model, SWOT analysis model, PEST analysis etc. The thesis analyze the HW Reflective Materials’ external competitive environment, the ability of internal resources, competitive market position and financial capacity. On this basis, we will study the problem of the marketing channels’ competitive strategy formulation after the acquisition of HW Reflective Materials, Inc.Secondly, based on the Enterprise Value Chain, this part of the thesis Study of the design of the corporation’s marketing channel. when people design the channel mode, What factors should we consider them? All these provide some consults for the corporation in establishing and up dating the mode of the channel. Next, we discussed the evaluating method to the members of the channel of distribution. A mode has been established to evaluate some factors that are difficult to be described accurately.The third, this thesis analyzes the development of marketing channel Management and risk Management comprehensively, including the risk of marketing channel, based on the marketing channel management theory, risk management theory and risk early-warning theory, analyzes the marketing channel risk and the inducement roundly. Then, an index system of risk early-warining theory was established, finally achieves successful results.Finally, the marketing channel becomes the key factor to get sustained competitive advantage for the reflective materials appliance enterpri-ses·Channel conflict occurs more and more frequently. The channel conflict influences the efficiency and inter-firm relationships in marketing channel. Based on the analysis the reason of channel conflict, the paper puts forward some solutions for channel conflict management from the theory of channel construct, channel behavior and channel relationship, which is to bring about a coordinated development of China’s reflective materials appliance industry.


The Research on Housing Accumulation Fund of Hunan Loans Risk Management

On 11/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

With the deepening of the reform of the China’s housing, the real estate market has developed rapidly, especially as the housing prices rocketing, more and more people through the housing accumulation fund loan to solve housing needs.Thus increasing the size of the loan of housing accumulation fund. Housing accumulation fund loan scale in the increase of housing accumulation fund, the increased the difficulty of Management at the same time, make housing accumulation fund loan risk also increase gradually. Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center was founded in1994, after more than10years’development, the centralized Management of the housing accumulation fund scale already breakthrough100billion yuan, housing accumulation fund to pay coverage up to95percent, accumulative total extend housing accumulation fund loan amount nearly70million yuan. In view of such situation, how to manage the scale of the housing accumulation fund loan, effectively prevent and control housing accumulation fund loan risk has become a current urgent task and subject to Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center.Based on the financial deepening theory, financial fragility theory and financial innovation theory, this paper analyses the loan risks generation of thousing accumulation fund, and analyzes the accumulation fund loan risk characteristics and its classification from the general hierarchy of fund loan.Then, with the basis of analysis of Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center’s housing accumulation fund loan risk management situation, we take the Analytial Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assess Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center’s loan risk of housing accumulation fund. The assessment results that the credit risk, operation risk, mortgaged property risk is the main risk, and the developers’manangment risk and real estate market risk also play an important role. Using the general risk management method, this article come out the risk management measures from two aspects:risk prevention and risk dissolves. Risk mainly refers that the accumulation fund management center should improve its internal risk management mechanism, and this article give some specific measures from the information system construction, loan decision-making, approving loans and establish internal risk compensatory mechanism etc. Risk dissolves mechanism mainly include loan guarantee system, loan insurance system and loan securitization, and based on the current situation of Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center’s loan risk of housing accumulation fund,we put forward some specific suggest.This paper attempts to use financial theory to analyze Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center’s accumulation fund loan risk, and find out the causes of risk. at last this paper put forward some feasible suggestions.The research conclusion has certain specific aim, and it could make some guide function to the Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center.


The Research of VaR Application in Finance Derivatives Market of Shipping Industry

On 02/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

There are more and more Chinese companies participate in the international shipping market recently years. Because the Dry Bulk shipping industry is almost a complete compete market,the freight can change 20% within a week. This huge fluctuation means extreme risk to both ship owners and freight owners,furthermore,the Dry Bulk itself(e.g. iron ore,coal,farm produce etc.)has low value and that make freight more important. Because the huge risk, risk control with the Finace Derivatives tools is urgent to the shipping industry.Along with the development of Finance Investment and Econometrics, many Risk Management methods are invented. This article introduce themainstream method–VaR(Value at Risk) in detail and analyze theshipping industry data to find a suitable method and math model which can apply to the shipping industry. This article take 2000 trading days from 1998.7.8 to 2006.6.29 as research object, apply Variance-Covariance method and EGARCH math model to do a experiment. Finally,this article get a conclusion from the experiment,give some advise to the international shipping practitioners and testify it’ s feasible to manage the risk of Finance Derivatives Market of Shipping Industry with VaR method.

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Application Research of Generalized Risk Elements Transmission Theory in the Communications Business Management

On 01/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

Numerous domestic and international research on risk, and the system is improving consummately. But those are more placing emphasis on risk, less on risk quantitative. Communication Enterprise risk Management is especially true in the preparations for the new business plan period. Basing on historical experience and market research data to assess the risk of the project, some businesses are tested only in the unit area. Then run it comprehensive hurriedly. Risk Management only limited to a simple qualitative analysis, needing quantitative analysis.Paper will introduce risk element theory to risk Management in the communications industry. Put forward the various risks are prevalent in China’s telecommunications business transfer process. Use generalized project risk analysis and research, to explore risk relationship between the uncertainty of the overall goal of the pass. Use the qualitative and quantitative analysis through generalized communications business of risk transfer theory, to demonstrate the existence of uncertainties may impact, guiding the marketing projects of communication corporate.As the background risk management of the marketing communications corporations in Hebei Province, use generalized risk element transmission theory of relational, hierarchical, tree, network-type four risk transfer mode. The marketing management process related to the project Economic evaluation, matching of the choice of agents, employees, the impact of Environmental factors on the business development, vendor selection, the Social evaluation of projects, bank loans and business development, forecasting, risk analysis and evaluation. From the uncertainty essential to proceed, the risk element as the Basic unit of risk research, focusing on the uncertainty of the risk element, demonstrated the business risk management feasibility in Hebei Province communications through an empirical way.Basing on the generalized risk element transmission theory, paper try to explore the risk management system model, a set of marketing projects in the communications industry to provide practical guidance for the communications Enterprise risk management.