Software Risk Management Model and Empirical Study

On 17/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

The software industry is the fastest growing industry in the world. Software project is very complex, highly technical and fast-updating; with its products’hard-to-measure abstract .All of them make the high risk of software projects. Besides, along with fast development of software industry, software projects become larger and larger, more complex and more complex, with its risk more difficult to control, leading to the failure of the software projects.Prior to completing the project, because of the lack of an effective prediction tool, enterprises should not predict the success of the project eventually; it is likely to result in major losses. Based on the summary of the software project risk Management study in the past, this paper has done the work as following:Firstly,through combining literature reading in software project Management ,this paper gets 50 risk factors. By prioritizing the risk factors reflected in the questionnaire surveys ,the paper obtains the Top 10 risk factors which is in line with developing characteristics of software project in our country, including poorly defined requirements, unrealistic cost and schedule estimation, insufficient plan, poor communication, process problems, staff shortage, poor change Management ,poor project execution, external influence problems and implementation problems.Secondly, based on these Top 10 risk factors, according to the discriminate analysis of questionnaire data, the paper creates discriminate model which can quantitatively determine the success of a project. In the early time of the project, it can give specific information (quantitative data) and help people take measures to avoid the failure of the project finally.The data that demonstration analysis needed is obtained in the methods of questionnaire survey. There are 57 valid answers in the 60 projects. Discriminate model correctly predicted 44 of the 57 projects in the reality. the correct rate is 77.2%, which supports the hypothesis that “failure factors of unsuccessful software development projects are significantly higher than failure factors of the successful software projects.”


A Optimal Design of the Sales Channels for Electronic Components Products of HW Reflective Materials, Inc

On 16/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

With the rapid development of the marketing and the homogeneity of the products, the market gradually transforms from the product-driven to the channel-driven, and the importance of the marketing channel becomes more and more obvious, and channel becomes the key factor of the competition among enterprises. In the competitive market, who have mastered the channels will master the initiative. To maintain the stability and unimpeded of the channel become an unavoidable topic of the Enterprise.First of all, based on the introduction of the sales channels of HW reflective materials, Inc, by using some knowledge of Porter Five Competitive Forces Model, SWOT analysis model, PEST analysis etc. The thesis analyze the HW Reflective Materials’ external competitive environment, the ability of internal resources, competitive market position and financial capacity. On this basis, we will study the problem of the marketing channels’ competitive strategy formulation after the acquisition of HW Reflective Materials, Inc.Secondly, based on the Enterprise Value Chain, this part of the thesis Study of the design of the corporation’s marketing channel. when people design the channel mode, What factors should we consider them? All these provide some consults for the corporation in establishing and up dating the mode of the channel. Next, we discussed the evaluating method to the members of the channel of distribution. A mode has been established to evaluate some factors that are difficult to be described accurately.The third, this thesis analyzes the development of marketing channel Management and risk Management comprehensively, including the risk of marketing channel, based on the marketing channel Management theory, risk management theory and risk early-warning theory, analyzes the marketing channel risk and the inducement roundly. Then, an index system of risk early-warining theory was established, finally achieves successful results.Finally, the marketing channel becomes the key factor to get sustained competitive advantage for the reflective materials appliance enterpri-ses·Channel conflict occurs more and more frequently. The channel conflict influences the efficiency and inter-firm relationships in marketing channel. Based on the analysis the reason of channel conflict, the paper puts forward some solutions for channel conflict management from the theory of channel construct, channel behavior and channel relationship, which is to bring about a coordinated development of China’s reflective materials appliance industry.


The Research on Housing Accumulation Fund of Hunan Loans Risk Management

On 11/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

With the deepening of the reform of the China’s housing, the real estate market has developed rapidly, especially as the housing prices rocketing, more and more people through the housing accumulation fund loan to solve housing needs.Thus increasing the size of the loan of housing accumulation fund. Housing accumulation fund loan scale in the increase of housing accumulation fund, the increased the difficulty of Management at the same time, make housing accumulation fund loan risk also increase gradually. Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center was founded in1994, after more than10years’development, the centralized Management of the housing accumulation fund scale already breakthrough100billion yuan, housing accumulation fund to pay coverage up to95percent, accumulative total extend housing accumulation fund loan amount nearly70million yuan. In view of such situation, how to manage the scale of the housing accumulation fund loan, effectively prevent and control housing accumulation fund loan risk has become a current urgent task and subject to Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center.Based on the financial deepening theory, financial fragility theory and financial innovation theory, this paper analyses the loan risks generation of thousing accumulation fund, and analyzes the accumulation fund loan risk characteristics and its classification from the general hierarchy of fund loan.Then, with the basis of analysis of Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center’s housing accumulation fund loan risk management situation, we take the Analytial Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assess Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center’s loan risk of housing accumulation fund. The assessment results that the credit risk, operation risk, mortgaged property risk is the main risk, and the developers’manangment risk and real estate market risk also play an important role. Using the general risk management method, this article come out the risk management measures from two aspects:risk prevention and risk dissolves. Risk mainly refers that the accumulation fund management center should improve its internal risk management mechanism, and this article give some specific measures from the information system construction, loan decision-making, approving loans and establish internal risk compensatory mechanism etc. Risk dissolves mechanism mainly include loan guarantee system, loan insurance system and loan securitization, and based on the current situation of Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center’s loan risk of housing accumulation fund,we put forward some specific suggest.This paper attempts to use financial theory to analyze Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center’s accumulation fund loan risk, and find out the causes of risk. at last this paper put forward some feasible suggestions.The research conclusion has certain specific aim, and it could make some guide function to the Hunan Pertain Housing Accumulation Fund Management Center.


The Research of VaR Application in Finance Derivatives Market of Shipping Industry

On 02/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

There are more and more Chinese companies participate in the international shipping market recently years. Because the Dry Bulk shipping industry is almost a complete compete market,the freight can change 20% within a week. This huge fluctuation means extreme risk to both ship owners and freight owners,furthermore,the Dry Bulk itself(e.g. iron ore,coal,farm produce etc.)has low value and that make freight more important. Because the huge risk, risk control with the Finace Derivatives tools is urgent to the shipping industry.Along with the development of Finance Investment and Econometrics, many Risk Management methods are invented. This article introduce themainstream method–VaR(Value at Risk) in detail and analyze theshipping industry data to find a suitable method and math model which can apply to the shipping industry. This article take 2000 trading days from 1998.7.8 to 2006.6.29 as research object, apply Variance-Covariance method and EGARCH math model to do a experiment. Finally,this article get a conclusion from the experiment,give some advise to the international shipping practitioners and testify it’ s feasible to manage the risk of Finance Derivatives Market of Shipping Industry with VaR method.

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Application Research of Generalized Risk Elements Transmission Theory in the Communications Business Management

On 01/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

Numerous domestic and international research on risk, and the system is improving consummately. But those are more placing emphasis on risk, less on risk quantitative. Communication Enterprise risk Management is especially true in the preparations for the new business plan period. Basing on historical experience and market research data to assess the risk of the project, some businesses are tested only in the unit area. Then run it comprehensive hurriedly. Risk Management only limited to a simple qualitative analysis, needing quantitative analysis.Paper will introduce risk element theory to risk management in the communications industry. Put forward the various risks are prevalent in China’s telecommunications business transfer process. Use generalized project risk analysis and research, to explore risk relationship between the uncertainty of the overall goal of the pass. Use the qualitative and quantitative analysis through generalized communications business of risk transfer theory, to demonstrate the existence of uncertainties may impact, guiding the marketing projects of communication corporate.As the background risk management of the marketing communications corporations in Hebei Province, use generalized risk element transmission theory of relational, hierarchical, tree, network-type four risk transfer mode. The marketing management process related to the project Economic evaluation, matching of the choice of agents, employees, the impact of Environmental factors on the business development, vendor selection, the Social evaluation of projects, bank loans and business development, forecasting, risk analysis and evaluation. From the uncertainty essential to proceed, the risk element as the Basic unit of risk research, focusing on the uncertainty of the risk element, demonstrated the business risk management feasibility in Hebei Province communications through an empirical way.Basing on the generalized risk element transmission theory, paper try to explore the risk management system model, a set of marketing projects in the communications industry to provide practical guidance for the communications Enterprise risk management.


Study on Owner’s Risk Management of Overseas Embassy and Consulate Building Projects

On 27/02/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

Overseas Embassy and Consulate Compounds (ECC) not only serve as working and living places for diplomats , but also represent our international image, comprehensive national strength and characteristic culture. The evaluation,approval, design and execution of ECC building projects constitute complicated systematic processes. The factors that ECC building projects are executed abroad and directed by related department in China make them more vulnerable to various risks.Applying the theory of Total Risk Management and the writer’s practical experience in the field of ECC building projects Management,this article identifies and analyzes both subjective and objective risks throughout ECC building projects from the Owner’s perspective,and concludes that all risks eventually belong to the Owner and the Owner shall bear in mind risk Management. On that basis,this article explores optional measures for the Owner and believes:it is fundamental to avoid decision making risks and project evaluation and feasibility study should be more comprehensive; Distributing risks rationally leads to effective risk management, contract management must be strengthened and competent project design, construction and supervision teams shall be selected through scientific processes; Modern risk deflection methods such as bond and insurance shall be applied more actively;It is advised to enhance standardized project management and information technology application for the purpose of minimizing subjective risks. It is decisive to select the right project management strategy based on project risk analysis,which is dealt with in the related chapter.


The System Arrangement of Social Security Fund Investment in China

On 18/02/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

Social security funds are the core content of the Social security system, and the success or failure of China’s Social system is directly based on the operation and supervision condition of social funds. Therefore, in the new socio-Economic environment, how to make the social security fund achieve the best value-added, ensuring its security in the same time ,and get better social benefits ,become the more and more concerned topic.The article consists of chapters and it explains the Investment strategy of the social security fund and some executing problem systemically and practically. At first, it introduces the concept and principle of the Investment of the social security fund and Investment theory to the readers. And the writer analyses the investment strategy of the social security fund nowadays in our country, including the investment orientation, investment structure and some factors that have influence upon the investment. After that, the writer introduces some foreign investment strategy of the social security fund and analyses comparatively our country’s investment strategy and then raise some foreign successful experience that can be used for reference. At last, on the base of previous analysis, the writer offers some proposals to our country’s investment strategy of the social security fund, including the financial products innovation, the investment on the real estate and the preponderant industries and even in foreign financial markets.Based on these, we have proposed this topic and researched it. On the basis of the former results, this paper seeks to analysis deeply the existing problems and shortcomings of the China’s social security fund investment operations, and the reasons for the inefficiencies of its investment operations from the perspective of macro system. In the same time, the writer not only specifically brought the principle which different types of the social security fund investment operations to be followed, but also comparative the advanced experiences of developed countries at the same time from each other, with a view to promote the efficient operation of the China’s social security fund investment ,and further to help the social security fund become the unique role and great value player in the entire social security system.


Project-Appraisal and Cost Control for Fine Chemical Investment

On 16/02/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

Referring to the weight of Investment to country’s GDP, with rapid development of economy globalization and information technologies, the theories of the Investment appraisal and project cost control have become hot research topic in the field of Management science. Based on reading and studying of a large number of research references , looking into fine chemical industry in a current competing market environment, by referring to the systematic and complete methodologies in foreign Investment companies, adequating to the real domestic situation, deeply demonstration and researching on following themes have done , e.g. phase definition over the whole project life, investment appraisal at beginning ,risk Management, Economic criteria analysis, clean production/ investment, project cost control etc. The main contents of this thesis are as follows:1. Referring to the theories of”project management, investment appraisal”and the systematic methodologies in foreign investment companies, deeply studied themes of”investment-decision shall orientate future, reduction of risk shall start as prevention and Economic criteria analysis (IRR, NPV, PB)”, Well explained the relationship among main steps at beginning of project feasibility study. i.e. Environment analysis– risk management– control parameters selection for project– economy analysis for project.2. Referring to the theory of”participating factors of cost control”, deeply studied the it’s influential and methodologies of cost control over whole phases.3.Referring to the theory of”clean production/ Eco-product development strategy”, demonstrated the relationship between sustainable development and investment.4. The application project in fine chemical investment was carried out, and the demonstrated theories and methods were verified. Good practical effects were obtained..


In a two-echelon supply chain which consists of a downstream retaile…

On 13/02/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

In a two-echelon supply chain which consists of a downstream retailer and an upstream manufacturer, faced with the uncertainty of market demand, the retailer make ordering decisions after forecasting the real market demand with noisy demand information that he (or she) observes, which will influence the upstream manufacturer’s wholesale price decision-making. The market demand fluctuation and information noises will lead to performance (profit) fluctuations both individually and globly in the supply chain via the retailer’s ordering-decision. The process of “exogenous risks have effects on the retailer’s ordering-decision and then have effects on performance variance of the upstream manufacturer” is named risk transmission in supply chains in this paper.Firstly, this paper tries to build a game model between the node firms (a retailer and a manufacturer) in a supply chain with a wholesale price contract under the condition that demand fluctuation and information noises are uniformly distributed. Further, with the quilibrium, it studies how exogenous risks (demand fluctuations and information noises) are transmitted in the supply chain (i.e., how do exogenous risks (demand risk and information risk) affect the variance of node firms’profits) and discusses the impacts of those exogenous risks on (demand risk and information risk) on their expected profits. Secondly, this paper builds a three-stage game model between an upstream supplier and a downstream manufacturer in a supply chain with a wholesale price contract when futures trading are available, so as to describe how the manufacturer and the supplier strategically interact. Further, via analyzing the equilibrium, it studies the impacts of the change in the futures price on the transmission of demand risk (variance) in supply chains (i.e. how the futures price affects node firms’profit variances and expectations).The results show that,(1) due to interaction of the “judgment effect” and the “decision effect”, those exogenous risks (demand risk and information risk) have different effects on the retailer’s variance and expectation of its profit under different demand observations;(2)the manufacturer’s variance of profit increases in the magnitude of the demand fluctuations and decreases in that of information noises, whereas the manufacturer expected performance will be kept unchanged, which implies that those exogenous risks (demand risk and information risk) are transmitted to manufacturer vai the retailer’s strategic ordering (3) in the presence of futures market, the supplier’s variance of profit increases in the change of the futures price and it results in higher profit risk that the supplier bears when the futures price rises,which implies the manufacturer’s ordering-decision makes the exogenous risk (demand risk) transmit to the supplier,the change in the futures price can be used for supply chain managers as an indicator for foreseeing how their profitability and risk are going to change.


Super vacuoles technology has made great achievements in the world a…

On 12/02/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

Super vacuoles technology has made great achievements in the world and has made sport in water achieved ultra high speed “flight”. At present, Russia has successfully developed the speed of100m/s “storm” super vacuoles torpedo; The United States, Germany, France and other countries are doing the research on Basic and application of the cavitation drag reduction technology. China recently launched in super vacuoles of Basic research technique.There is a big gap between China and foreign countries no matter in technology or research methods, because our country began to do some research on super vacuoles technology is very late. And it will lead to enormous risk because the variability of project plans, technical uncertainty, imperfect communication, test method selection, test equipment differences, costs, competition of external environment, staff mobility, etc may not be achieve. How to forecast risk, analyze risk, control and avoid risks on Management is the difficulties and focus of achieving the project Management of super vacuoles technology.This study views the project of super vacuoles technology as a whole and make a combination of R&D project between the project risk management theory and the actual status of super vacuoles technology, and then establishe a risk management system of super vacuoles technology research and development. By using the risk identification method, we make the risk of super vacuoles technology R&D projects into five major categories:schedule risk, the test risk, thchnical risk, cost risk, personnel risk. And then analyze the main risk factors of each category of the five major risks. Moreover, on this basis, we build a risk analysis sysetm of Ⅱ level hierarchical structure by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Finally, through identifying the importance of various risk factors and deep researching of risk management and risk prevention, we give prevention stategies to deal with the five major categories of risk. This research not only can reduce the risk of super vacuoles technology R&D projects, but also provide a theoretical basis for similar projects and practical application of reference.

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