Because of lots of factors, the international tanker market is one o…

On 17/04/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

Because of lots of factors, the international tanker market is one of the typical of high-risk industries. And the fluctuation of this freight is one of the inherent risks of the tanker markets. In order to effectively control the risks of shipping, shipping companies have developed a variety of strategies. Gradually, freight futures market is produced. Among them, the Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) is a recently developed shipping freight derivatives which can effectively manage the risk of freight fluctuation. In recent years, FFA has gradually been widely applied. There is also a rapid increase in the trading volume. However, the participation of Chinese enterprises in the FFA market is still relatively limited, and even less in the tanker market. What is more, the operation and Management of the FFA are not matured enough.In order to explore FFA’s potential impact in managing risks of the tanker freight fluctuations, there are two typical routes TD3and TC2are chosen to be researched in this paper. These two routes are the most actively routes and also the highest trading volume of the world. The calculations of the correlation between the spot price and the FFA price have been done in the paper. It is been found that there are highly associated between the spot market and the long-term freight market, which is a Basic condition for hedging. This article mainly focused on researching into FFA’s effects of hedging using the modern theoretical model of hedging. The hedging performance index proved that FFA has a good hedge function.According to above analysis and study of status of FFA and operation, we get the advantage and disadantage of FFA and give our suggestion, which is before participating in the FFA transaction, domestic companies need make the objn ective of risk Management clear and once there are scientific and rational ways, domestic companies should chose the right time to enter the market, in-depth understanding of the market and accurately grasp the Economic situation. And then the FFA trading will make a great contribution to risk management of the Enterprise.Further more, the disadvantage of the paper is indicated in the last, which need improve in the future.


The Risk Management of Investment on Insurance Funds

On 15/04/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

At present, the insurance market is highly competitive, underwriting business as an important source of profit for the insurance company have the downward trend in recent years, in order to maintain the profitability of the company, the use of insurance funds as another source of profit for the insurance company is increasingly paid attention to by people. In recent years, the ever-widening channel for the use of insurance funds and the improvement of the Investment climate bring a good opportunity for the vigorous development of China’s insurance market. However, benefits and risks exist side by side, we often enjoy the high profits of the stock market at the same time we need to bear the high risk. Therefore, insurance companies must strengthen risk control, according to their own risk preferences and the expectations of earnings, make appropriate Investment strategy to improve risk Management and profitability of insurance companies.The use of insurance funds face different risks in china’s different investment markets, and how to effectively measure the overall risk of the use of insurance funds has become an urgent in academia and industry.This article intends to construct a suitable econometric model to measure the risk of the use of insurance funds, in model building, first of all, we have created the GARCH model to reflect the volatility effect because there is volatility clustering in each market, for financial market data are often thick-tailed distribution, extreme value theory which measure the risk of losses caused by the fat tail distribution events and extreme events is introduced in the GARCH model to construct the GARCH-EVT model; secondly, in order to better measure the correlation between the different markets, we use copula function which can measure non-linear and asymmetric correlation to describe the different markets; finally, for the built GARCH-EVT-Copula model, we use the Monte Carlo method to simulate the rate of return data of different markets, and then calculate the VaR for each simulated data and the portfolio risk in the investment of insurance funds.In the empirical part, this paper select1041closing price data from January4,2007to May12,2011in trading day of SSE composite index, SSE fund index, SSE government bond index and overnight shibor to reflect the earnings in the several major investment markets of the investment of insurance funds. by establishing four risk control model of different combinations, we use the Monte Carlo method to simulate the data of rate of return in the four markets and then find the appropriate VaR and CVaR values, last, test the fitting results and optimize the portfolio.By the inspection act of Kupiec failure rate, we have come to a result that the fitting effect of the GARCH-EVT-Clayton is best, in the different degrees of confidence, the forecast failure rate and the expected failure rate is very close, there is a small error; from the results of optimization, the portfolio risk after optimization have a significant decrease than before, it explain that the model we build can effectively avoid risks.


The VAR Model and Its Application in the Exchange Rate Investment Risk Management

On 14/04/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

July 21 2005,China started landmark reform on Renminbi exchange rate policy, and linked the currency to a basket of currencies.The basket of currencies includes mainly the currency that have large volume of trade with China such as US dollar、EURO dollar、Japanese yen and South Korean wons etc.But People’s Bank of China hasn’t announced the proportion of each currency.The settlement of proportion determine directly the volume of exchange rate risk.Besides,for exchange rate Investment,the proportion of Investment determine the volume of Investment risk we face with.VAR technique is a new risk Management method that has been developed in 1990’s.As a quantitative model to measure and control financial risk,compared with traditional models, it is easy to understand and apply so as to have more practical and referential significance.At present,VAR technique has become one of main methods to measure market risk,assess achievement and expose information in the world.This paper introduces the VAR method to the control of exchange rate investment risk.Through the improvement of VAR method,using the random searching method,at the foundation of the recent exchange rate data,I calculated the best proportion of each main money.The paper has five chapters and eleven sections.In the preface,the background,the significance of research,the analysis of domestic finance risk Management are introduced briefly.Chapter 2 describes systematically the Basic principle and calculating of VAR model,the creation,the application the advantage and disadvantage of VAR model.The calculating method includes analystical method,the historical simulation method and Monte Carlo simulation method.Chapter 3 improves the calculating method of VAR model.It introduces importantly the random searching delta-normal method and the improvement the Monte Carlo simulation method.In chapters 4,the domestic exchange rate policy and the management of exchange rate risk are summarized.Chapter 5 is VAR model’s application in exchange rate investment risk management.Firstly,it introduces detailedly the policy of the basket of currencies nowadays.Secondly, taking advantage of the exchange rate data of Renminbi yuan to US dollar、EURO dollar、Japanese rens and South Korean wons in recent years.Using the random searching


Research on Risk Management of Self-service Equipments Unite Platform Project of D Bank

On 13/04/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

With the development of the degree of society information, domestic commercial banks are gradually realizing informational concentration. There are more kinds of business in the bank, and business competition is more severe, so the software used by bank is asked to meet some demand: more secure and more efficient. It needs a system and an useful theory to do research on risk. Because the scale of software becomes larger and more complicated, the production and Management of software becomes more complicated, and the risk of software is more larger. The risk of software includes some aspects, the phenomenon of delaying and out of budget in implementing software programs is popular. So we should induct risk Management to solve the above problems.Software risk Management is the practice course to influence the risks of software project, course or the products to estimate and control ,it is also the criterion made in order to it influences the risks of software project, course or the products to solve. The software item risk management can avoid failure because of risk, it is beneficial to all users.With the development of self-service business of D bank, it includes many brands, self-service business is asked to meet more demand. To satisfy self-service business of D bank, D bank raises a system called xBANKTrans, which can help self-service business of D bank a lot. Main study of this text under the condition of each commercial bank data is big concentrated information-based, D bank how to evaluate and estimate the risk that the native special features software item bring, and how to work well the software item risk management.Full-text is divided into seven sections:The first part is introduction. This part describes the background and significance of this article , introduces the research method and research ideas, and make some introduction of the situation at home and abroad. The second part is knowledge about software project risk management theory. This section introduces the Basic principles, status and procedures of software project risk management theory.The third part is a summary about project of self-service equipments of D bank. This section focuses on the need for the project construction and project specific circumstances.The forth part is software project of D bank risk identification and estimation. Delphi method is used to identify the risk.The fifth part is software project of D bank risk assessment information system .AHP method is used to evaluate the risk. We conclude risk of need is larger than risk of technology, risk of technology is larger than risk of external, risk of external is larger than risk of team, risk of team is larger than risk of organization. And then we use fuzz comprehensive evaluation method to get the same conclusion.The sixth part is the response and monitoring of software project of D bank .According to the above proposed high-risk, this section proposes response measures and monitoring.The seventh part is conclusion and outlook. This part get a result of software project of D bank risk assessment ,draws appropriate conclusions, and the support software project of D bank is forecasted.This study on software project of D bank risk evaluation and analysis, is not only for this project’s decision-making and effectively reduces and avoids the risks, but also expects to provide a effective decision-making help to some projects like this.


The Research on Risk Management Mechanism of Financing Guarantee Institutions

On 07/04/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

SMEs are a major force in the national economy in China. At present, SMEs account for 99% of the total number of all enterprises, creating value of all final goods and services account for about 60% of GDP, 50% of tax payments, providing about 80% of urban jobs. SMEs with its flexible operation mechanism and market adaptability are an important force for promoting Economic and Social development of China. However, SMEs, due to operational instability, low credit ratings, no sufficient collateral, are difficult to obtain bank loans, leading to difficulties in financing of SMEs, seriously restricting the development of SMEs.Financing guarantee institutions are the financial intermediation services, to provide a proof of credit and responsibility assurance for assets just living in between banks and SMEs. Since the intervention of guarantee, some of the bank loan spread and reduce the risk of bank assets to obtain security guarantees, so that the channels between enterprises and banks become clear up. At present, the number of SME financing guarantee institutions increased to 5547 from the 97, and the guarantee funds raised from the initial 3.0 billion to today’s 338.9 billion Yuan, with an increase of 57 times, respectively, and 113 times, from 2000 to 2010. Guarantee institutions for SMEs in 2010 to provide a secured loan volume has reached 1.1 trillion Yuan, the first time exceeding one trillion Yuan mark.Financing guarantee institutions in mitigating financial constraints of SMEs and strengthening financial institutions lending to SMEs play an extremely active role in this process. In this process, it took over the risk baton from SMEs. Credit environment in China is still not very well now. It’s the road of the survival and development for financing guarantee institutions how to control the risk of a financial institution. Therefore, it’s very important value to study the risk Management mechanism of financing guarantee institutions.

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Study on Bio-disaster Risk Management of the Double Cropping System of Wheat and Maize Based on Production Condition Change in Hebei Province

On 05/04/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

The yields of wheat and maize, the main grain crops in Hebei province, are restricted by bio-disaster risk for a long time. In recent years, the new changes of diseases, insect pests and weeds of wheat and maize have caused by the changes of production conditions including climatic conditions, tillage Management, cultivar variations, water and fertilizer Management and cross-operating of combine harvesters, meanwhile, which increased the risk of the food security production. At present, the bio-disaster management of winter wheat and maize is mainly crisis management but not risk management in Hebei Province. The prevention and treatment of diseases, insect pests and weeds of wheat and maize were developed gradually and very little effects with a high Investment. Under the new production condition, it is an important measure to enhance the research in bio-disaster risk management of wheat and maize for carrying out the plant protection principle of”prevention-first and combination with control”, which is also an important guarantee for reducing possibly the yield loss of wheat and maize, the food security production and the sustainable development.In this paper, the bio-disaster situations of wheat and maize, in 32 monitoring sites from the three different ecotypes, Piedmont, Heilonggang and Eastern Plains in Heibei Province from 2000 to 2010, were analysised by the methods of documentary research and quantitative and qualitative analysis. The meteorological data of Gu’an, Qingyuan and Quzhou counties was analysised from 1981 to 2010. The situation of harvester application and the degree of cognition and implementation to the bio-disaster risk management were analysised by investigating the plant protection department workers of the nineteen counties to clear the occurrence of the diseases, insect pests and weeds, the effects of the changes of production conditions and the present situation and problems of bio-disaster risk management in Hebei province. In the last, the background, recognition and analysis of the bio-disaster in accordance with the process of risk management were cleared, and then the bio-disaster risk evaluation index system of wheat and maize was established by the method of PRA multiple indexes synthetic analysis for pest risk. The Basic scheme for handling risk was raised by setting the calculation formula of risk value. The results are as follows:The main species of diseases, pests and weeds had reached up to 15, 20 and 21 respectively in Hebei province. The main diseases and pests were Powdery Mildew, Sharp Eyespot, Scab, Aphids, Wheat-spider and Wheat midge with Descurainia Sophia as the dominant species in all weeds. There were four characteristics about the occurrence of the diseases, insect pests and weeds, including some secondary diseases and insect pests becoming to the dominant, the complex and diverse weeds species, a tendency expanding from the former location to North and East and a continuous damage to wheat and maize. The pest species of maize increased significantly with some diseases and pests, for example, the northern and southern left blight, seedling blight, root rot, brown spot, ear rot, corn borer, thrips, soil insects, armyworm and so on. Rough dwarf disease began to be popular in some regions even with no production. At the same time, the top rot disease and the proxenus lepigone took place in a large area as the new disease and pest.The bio-disasters of wheat and maize were affected significantly by the changes of the production conditions in Hebei province. Since 1981 to 2010, the average temperature has an increasing trend in Hebei province with a decreased negative accumulated temperature year by year. The precipitation and the relative humidity also decreased. There is a positive correlation between the changes of precipitation and relative humidity with the disease area of scab, powdery mildew and leaf spot, but no correlation with the area of insect pests. Aphids of wheat and corn borer were affected significantly by the increasing annual average temperature, but no effect on the other insect pests and diseases. The reduction of negative accumulated temperature could increase the over wintering Basic number of pathogen, eggs of insect pests and weed seeds. The occurrence and joint damage extents of the diseases and insect pests were aggravated by the no-tillage planting and straw returning. It is very easy that wheat and maize were infected by a variety of pathogen and insect pests because of the single resistance and the wrong management of water and fertilizer. For example, the high occurrence area of Sharp Eyespot was caused by the over application of nitrogen fertilizer. In some extent, the significant changes of variety, the new disease and insect pest and the obvious tendency expanding to north and east were caused by the cross-operations of combine harvesters, as the good media spreading the diseases and insect pests. In a word, the occurrences of bio-disasters were promoted by the changes of production conditions, and then the risk of food security production was aslo improved in Hebei province.At present, the bio-disaster management mostly depends on the crisis management in Hebei province, with the proportion of 95.6 percent, but the proportion of risk management is very poor. There are mainly four problems for bio-disaster risk management in Hebei province including lack of risk management knowledge, the low perceived importance of the government, lack of the legal and technical specification, Investment, assessment staff and unreasonable investment structure.During the bio-disaster risk management process of wheat and maize, the bio-disaster risk assessment index system and evaluation standard were constructed according to the distribution, potential risk, production conditions, the possibility of spread and diffusion and difficulty of management. The risk calculation formula, R = (P1·P2·P3·P4·P5)1/5, was set, and the Basic measures to handle the risk also were proposed. In this study, the scientific basis and technical reference were provided for bio-disaster risk assessment of wheat and maize in Hebei province.


Purchasing Risk Management in OEM Project in HP Company

On 27/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

As the development of China’s manufacturing industry, OEM has become a very common and popular business model in the field, especially in IT industry. In OEM model, brand owner can benefit from the low cost due to OEM supplier’s big scale advantage and their professional service in production Management and supply chain Management. Additionally and more importantly, brand owner can therefore focus themselves on the development of brand building, marketing and its distribution channels. However, reversely, as many things are not controlled by brand owner, if they cannot manage well and predict, they will be probably constrained by supplier and out of control finally. So, it is of significant importance to manage the various risks in OEM project during the project Management process.This article is standing from the point of the brand owner-HP’ s view, taking the theory of project risk management, research the kinds of the purchasing risks in their OEM project, find out solutions, and change the passive situation in the newly established department, for the reason of incomplete process system and employee’s lack of experience. Firstly, we realize the purchasing risks in HP’s OEM project, using the methods of Risk Management Files and Brainstorming. There are two kinds of risks, including timing risk and schedule risk. Secondly, risk evaluation. Finding out the risk factors which causing the purchasing risks, through Analytical Hierarchy Process. Thirdly, make copying strategy. Preventing, transferring or accepting the risks to each risk factor. At last, implement monitoring plan. Follow up the development of each risk factor and update them into the Risk Management File continuously.


Steel Processing and Distribution Center Project Risk Management

On 26/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

steel processing and distribution logistics services, as a new way. and its function is to have a stock of steel, and steel in the center of the cut, processing, inspection, distribution in the best time to each customer. Based on the above, the major domestic steel mills are in the steel processing and distribution centers to develop the construction project, in order to obtain the reduced supply chain costs, improve competitiveness, and stable sales channels to meet positive role. But at the same time, steel processing and distribution center project in the face many uncertainties, uncertainty factors can make preparations in advance, rather than risk factors are often uncertain, it is possible to bring the progress of project construction will extended, the cost overruns, waste of resources and even the serious consequences of abortion project. Therefore, the strengthening of project risk Management, develop appropriate measures to building the entire project of great significance.Based on China’s current steel processing and distribution center construction of the project development and risk Management situation, especially for steel Investment projects, from the perspective of the whole process of project risk management research. Shougang Construction of a typical project, for example, for such construction projects of their own characteristics, the use of risk management theory and method, analysis of risk factors, risk factor identification, risk assessment and risk control, to analyze. Through the risk management of such projects, the accumulation of experience in project risk management to achieve through risk identification, risk analysis and risk assessment, to understand the risks of the project, and as a basis for rational use of various risk response measures, management methods, techniques and tools for the project effectively control the risks, and properly handle the adverse consequences of risk events, the highest goal is to ensure the overall project cost of the least goals.In recent years, as an extension of the steel industry, steel industry chain processing and distribution center in China’s rapid development of construction projects, as the steel industry, the transformation of Economic growth and achieve added value and competitiveness of important ways. Meanwhile, with project management and risk management theory and practice in the use of project construction and operation of risk management also has made substantial progress, but European and American steel companies have been through the same steel processing and distribution centers, logistics, information flow, capital integration flow management, reduce costs, improve service and achieve a profit level compared to our steel processing and distribution center project in the construction and management, there are still a big gap, especially in project risk management, risk identification, risk to avoid and control measures need to strengthen research, raise the level.


Research on Risk Management of XX Real Estate Project in Weifang City

On 22/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

Real estate as an important pillar of the national economy is becoming moreand more important. The real estate development is a complex process of riskthroughout the risk of impact of each process varies. The current real estateindustry under the influence of national policy, showing large fluctuations,the real estate Investment will also face more challenges. Risk managementhas become the key factors influencing project success, also will become theimportant symbol of the level of Enterprise Management.Based on the real estate Investment risk theory, starting from the angle ofrisk Management, the article shows the real estate development project riskmanagement systematically and summarizes the project risk identification andevaluation methods. Then, combined with the current real estate investment inthe status quo, system analysis and identification of risk factors in real estatedevelopment process are given. Followed by empirical research on theWeifang XX real estate project, the article analyzes the internal and externalenvironment of the project which, combined with characteristics of the project,identifying the risks encountered by the various stages in the operation of theproject. Through the process of risk assessment studies, from the risk factorsthat the project may face, risk factors evaluation index system andcomprehensive evaluation model of project risk are established.Then,throughthe analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight, the fuzzycomprehensive evaluation is used for Weifang XX real estate project riskevaluation.Finally,according to the evaluation results, countermeasures andsuggestions are given from risk management processes, risk managementmethods and risk management objectives and so on.


Software Risk Management Model and Empirical Study

On 17/03/2015, in Economics papers, by rain

The software industry is the fastest growing industry in the world. Software project is very complex, highly technical and fast-updating; with its products’hard-to-measure abstract .All of them make the high risk of software projects. Besides, along with fast development of software industry, software projects become larger and larger, more complex and more complex, with its risk more difficult to control, leading to the failure of the software projects.Prior to completing the project, because of the lack of an effective prediction tool, enterprises should not predict the success of the project eventually; it is likely to result in major losses. Based on the summary of the software project risk Management study in the past, this paper has done the work as following:Firstly,through combining literature reading in software project Management ,this paper gets 50 risk factors. By prioritizing the risk factors reflected in the questionnaire surveys ,the paper obtains the Top 10 risk factors which is in line with developing characteristics of software project in our country, including poorly defined requirements, unrealistic cost and schedule estimation, insufficient plan, poor communication, process problems, staff shortage, poor change management ,poor project execution, external influence problems and implementation problems.Secondly, based on these Top 10 risk factors, according to the discriminate analysis of questionnaire data, the paper creates discriminate model which can quantitatively determine the success of a project. In the early time of the project, it can give specific information (quantitative data) and help people take measures to avoid the failure of the project finally.The data that demonstration analysis needed is obtained in the methods of questionnaire survey. There are 57 valid answers in the 60 projects. Discriminate model correctly predicted 44 of the 57 projects in the reality. the correct rate is 77.2%, which supports the hypothesis that “failure factors of unsuccessful software development projects are significantly higher than failure factors of the successful software projects.”